POP MART 25H2 First Take: After the print, the stock slumped 22% in the afternoon. On a 2H-only view, results were broadly in line with Bloomberg consensus but below some aggressive buyside models, which Dolphin Research believes had front‑run the move.

Setting the quarter aside, another disappointment was management’s conservative 2026 guide at 20% growth. Excluding new overseas store openings, the implied same‑store growth looks low single‑digit, which together fueled the afternoon selloff.

1、Overseas revenue below expectations. In 25H2, POP MART delivered revenue of RMB 23.2bn (+174% YoY), a slowdown from the 200%+ pace in H1. Domestic revenue reached RMB 12.6bn (+183% YoY), accelerating vs. H1 on stronger omni‑channel execution with outsized online contribution, beating the Street.

Overseas grew 281% YoY but decelerated vs. H1, especially in North America. Versus 10x+ growth in Q3, channel checks indicate offline sales softened after Nov. Black Friday promotions failed to deliver the expected surge, with growth falling below 500%, weighing on overseas performance.

2、Rising contribution from The Monsters. With Labubu capacity ramping in H2, The Monsters’ mix rose from 34.7% in H1 to 40%. New IP launches received mixed reviews, raising concerns about dependence on a single IP; on the positive side, the Xingxing Ren series became the fastest‑growing IP, up from under 3% to 7.2%.

3、Plush is now the largest category. The share of figures led by blind boxes continued to decline, while plush toys with higher GPM surged. Beyond The Monsters, many other IPs adopted plush designs, lifting plush’s overall mix from 44% in H1 to 54%.

4、GPM at a record high. A richer overseas mix and the rapid rise of higher‑margin plush pushed GPM to 73% in 25H2, a new high.

5、Operating leverage kicking in. The sales expense ratio fell as the company leaned into lower‑cost customer acquisition on overseas online platforms (Instagram, TikTok), and G&A also declined on disciplined spending and improved internal decision efficiency, lifting core OPM to 48%。$POP MART(09992.HK)