Analysis of Global Tech Stock Rotation
Recently, the global capital market has shown a pattern of severe divergence, with U.S. AI hardware and tech giants experiencing sharp volatility, while the A-share market continues its characteristic of rapid rotation:
U.S. Market Dynamics
Memory Chip Reversal
Micron debunked rumors of "exiting NVIDIA's supply chain," confirming HBM4 has entered mass production and delivery.
$Morgan Stanley(MS.US) aggressively raised its target price by 29% to $450, core logic:
Industry-wide shortage of memory chips.
Sellers hold absolute pricing power.
Forecasts 2026 EPS to reach $52.
Liquid Cooling Technology Boom
NVIDIA supplier Vertiv's earnings exceeded expectations, guiding for 2026 EPS of $6.
A single-day surge of 24% boosted the A-share liquid cooling sector.
A-Share Market Characteristics
Nuclear-Powered Electric Fan Market
Hotspots rotate daily: liquid cooling/memory/optical communication/MLCC led gains.
Computing power leasing stocks hit four consecutive limit-ups (Zhipu +28%, MiniMax +14%).
Severe Polarization
Shanghai Composite Index had 8 consecutive positive days but included two false positives.
Over 3,000 stocks fell daily on average, with the index supported only by mainline sectors.
Capital Flow Signals
The last capital withdrawal day before the holiday saw volume surge to 159.7 billion, indicating funds are positioning early.
Southbound capital continued inflows (4.6 billion), while domestic capital saw net outflows of 9.1 billion.
Risk Warnings
Computing power leasing speculation carries periodic risks (large companies will eventually build their own IDCs).
Traditional valuation models are failing; beware of "whale tail" rallies (sharp rise followed by a steep drop).
Operational Suggestions
Focus on hard-tech mainlines like memory chips/liquid cooling/optical communication.
Consider configuring reverse repo of government bonds before the holiday (1-day term enjoys 11-day returns).
Avoid chasing rallies and panic selling; beware of loss risks under rapid rotation.
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