AI Battle During the Spring Festival Box Office: Don't Just Focus on Red Packets, This Is the Real Investment Theme

This Chinese New Year, when you open your phone to grab red packets, you might not realize that behind it stands an entire AI army. From Baidu's ERNIE Bot and Tencent's Yuanbao to Alibaba's Tongyi Qianwen, billions of red packets have been thrown in. The giants aren't really fighting for that bit of traffic, but for the AI gateway of the next decade. Goldman Sachs says Alibaba and Tencent are the best bets, and this is not without reason — when AI moves from the lab to the living room, the real market action is just beginning.

I. Don't Be Fooled by Red Packets, This is a Battle for Gateways

Over the past two years, the keyword in the AI circle was the "Hundred Models War," where everyone competed on who had more model parameters and published papers faster. But this Chinese New Year, the wind has changed: giants are no longer showing off their tech but are directly using down-to-earth methods like red packets, the Spring Festival Gala, and short dramas to stuff AI into everyone's phones.

Tencent: Leveraging the 1 billion users of WeChat and QQ, its "Yuanbao" AI sends red packets, writes New Year greetings, and even helps generate New Year videos. This "AI + social" play directly cultivates user habits.
Alibaba: Tongyi Qianwen sponsored the Spring Festival Gala. The AI shopping assistant in Taobao can help you pick New Year goods and calculate discounts, turning AI into a "super shopping assistant" for e-commerce.
ByteDance: Seedance2.0 shook up the AI film circle, doubling the production efficiency of short dramas, special effects, and short videos, making the content ecosystem increasingly robust.

Simply put, the logic of these giants is simple: first, get you to use AI, then make you dependent on it. When AI becomes the standard for grabbing red packets, watching the Gala, and scrolling short videos during the New Year, whoever controls this gateway will control the future of digital life.

II. Why Does Goldman Sachs Favor Alibaba and Tencent?

Goldman Sachs says Alibaba and Tencent are the best bets, not because their models are the most advanced, but because their ecosystems are the most complete.

Tencent: The closed loop of social + gaming + content allows AI to be seamlessly embedded into every scenario. For example, AI NPCs in games, AI-generated materials in ads, and AI assistants in social interactions — the monetization path couldn't be clearer.
Alibaba: The foundation of e-commerce + cloud services allows AI to directly boost GMV and cloud revenue. AI shopping assistants can increase conversion rates, AI customer service can reduce costs, and the Tongyi large model can also provide services to enterprise clients. Every step translates to money.

In contrast, other giants either lack traffic, scenarios, or monetization capabilities. In the race for consumer AI, ecosystem is more important than technology — after all, the most advanced model is just a pile of code if no one uses it.

III. How to Pick Stocks? Don't Chase Small Caps, Focus on the Core Theme

The AI rally has been hyped for two years, and many are still chasing small caps that "rise on any AI mention." But this year is different. The ones that will truly succeed are those that can implement AI and make money from it.

1. Computing Power: The "Utilities" of AI, with the Strongest Certainty

No matter which giant's applications boom, they ultimately rely on computing power support. The benefit logic here is the most direct and least prone to pitfalls.

Industrial Internet (601138): The global leader in AI servers, supplying NVIDIA, Microsoft, and ByteDance, with orders backlogged until next year. As long as AI keeps developing, servers will be in demand, and earnings growth is almost a given.
Sugon (603019): A key player in domestic computing center construction, deeply tied with Zhipu AI. Zhipu's open-source GLM-5 has directly maxed out Sugon's computing power demand, and the domestic substitution logic is solid.
Zhongji Innolight (300308): The global leader in high-speed optical modules, with shipments of 800G and 1.6T products surging. The "highway" between data centers — the hotter AI gets, the more orders it receives.

2. Applications: Implementation Capability Determines Elasticity, Don't Speculate on Concepts

The application layer is the direct manifestation of AI's value and the main battlefield of the New Year season. But it's a mixed bag, so one must choose companies that can turn AI into a "money-making tool."

Tencent Holdings (00700.HK): The combination of AI + social + gaming hits every monetization point. New Year red packets are just the appetizer; AI skins in games and AI-generated materials in ads are the real profit sources.
Alibaba (09988.HK): The AI + e-commerce model is the most mature. Taobao's AI shopping assistant has already started boosting conversion rates, and Alibaba Cloud's AI services are also generating revenue for enterprise clients. Goldman Sachs' optimism is not unfounded.
BlueFocus (300058): The absolute leader in AI marketing among A-shares. AI-generated ad materials can cut costs in half, and clients are clamoring to use them. The stock price more than doubled at the start of the year, not on speculation but on real earnings support.
Chinese All (300364): Deeply tied with ByteDance, frequently producing hit AI short dramas and AI novels. New Year season promotion revenue exceeded expectations, driven by the dual engines of content + AI, offering high elasticity.

3. Ecosystem: Tie Up with Giants, Share the Dividends

Some companies don't develop AI themselves but can still get a slice of the pie by working for the giants.

iReader Technology (603533): Collaborates with ByteDance on AI comic dramas. The barrier of digital content + AI is high, with clear advantages in content review and copyright.
Caixun Shares (300634): Rich in operator channel resources, fast implementation of B-end AI applications. Solutions in finance and government sectors are already profitable.

IV. Viewpoint: Don't Be Led by Emotions

The AI rally is easy to get carried away with, especially during the bustling New Year season. But I always believe investing in AI requires grasping two core principles: implementation and monetization.

Implementation: Can AI solve real user needs? Is it helping you grab red packets, write copy, or pick products?
Monetization: Can the company make money from AI? Through ads, value-added services, or enterprise services?

Those small caps that rely solely on hype and have no real implementation rise fast and fall fast. Core bets like Tencent, Alibaba, and Industrial Internet may rise slowly, but every step is steady.

This Chinese New Year, AI will definitely be a highlight in the capital markets, but the real rally isn't driven by red packets; it's built step by step through technological implementation and commercial monetization.$TENCENT(00700.HK) $BABA-W(09988.HK) $Hang Seng Index(00HSI.HK) @Event Manager