$NIO(NIO.US)@Future Trader Pi Kan Chuan

Today, I listened to the podcast "Copper Mirror" (which discusses macroeconomics and commodities) and here are the shared insights:

1. Regarding solid-state batteries. Currently, based on various companies' roadmaps, there should still be 2-5 years before the first batch of "all-solid-state" trial mass production. The initial user experience will determine whether this industry will expand within the next decade.

2. Regarding electric vehicles for daily commuting. I believe pure electric vehicles, especially LFP (lithium iron phosphate) pure EVs, will be the ultimate form of automobiles within the next decade. The current global benchmark is Tesla, and all Chinese EV manufacturers' models can be compared against the Model Y as an anchor.

3. Based on short-term development prospects, I bought a battery-swapping model from a certain sub-brand in November 2024. It can be understood as a swappable battery vehicle, but its autonomous driving capabilities are not as good as the FSD version of the Model Y. The 60 kWh battery version has a full-charge range of 400-500 km for city commuting in central cities, and 250-300 km on highways (with highway battery swap stations roughly every 180 km). I've driven 28,000 km in just over a year, and the experience has been excellent.

Even in China, the golden age of heavy-asset projects is basically over. Things like daily subways and battery-swapping route vehicles will likely be hard to see for some time in the future.

Today's battery Reits matter is a small step for Nio in optimizing its heavy-asset commercial balance sheet. If this business can keep going, it will definitely get better and better.