⚔️【Hardcore Review】<span class="security-tag" type="security-tag" counter_id="ST/HK/0981" name="SMIC" trend="0" language="en">$SMIC(SMIC.HK)</span>: After a single-needle bottom at 68.25, is the "script" for the long-short showdown already revealed?

📉 【K-line doesn't lie, the chart is speaking】
On Wednesday, $SMIC(00981.HK) this K-line with a long lower shadow (High 71.95 / Low 68.25 / Close 70.00) contains a massive amount of information!
This is not just a 3-dollar price swing; it's a textbook-level liquidity stress test.

The sharp sell-off in the morning session directly broke through all short-term support levels, completing a "deep water" chip exchange around 68.25. The strong pullback above 70 in the afternoon indicates extremely strong willingness of major funds to absorb selling pressure at the lower bound of the trading range.

But don't be too optimistic yet—the Sword of Damocles hanging overhead—the MA60 bull-bear dividing line (71.65)—still looms large.

📊 【Current Core Technical Contradictions】

1. Ceiling Effect (Resistance)**：
   On the daily chart, the stock price remains suppressed below **MA60 (71.65) and MA10 (71.10). As long as it doesn't break and hold above 71.65 on significant volume, the current structure, by definition, is still a "continuation pattern in a downtrend" or a "weak rebound." If you see this as a reversal, you'll likely be taught a lesson by the moving average resistance.
2. Floor Resilience (Support)**：
   Wednesday's "hammer bottom" confirmed that **68.00-68.25 is an extremely solid "concrete floor" in the short term. The bullish divergence in the RSI indicator at low levels suggests that the selling momentum was largely exhausted on Wednesday.

⏳ 【Key Time Window and Scenario Projection】

Based on volatility models and price-volume-time-space analysis, the rhythm for the latter half of this week is highly likely as follows:

• 🛡️ Thursday (Recovery Period): The Calm Before the Storm
• Technical Logic: Wednesday's price swing was too large, and the bias rate needs to recover. Thursday will likely see narrow-range, low-volume consolidation relying on MA5 (69.39) to digest profit-taking and panic selling.
• K-line Forecast: A small bullish candle or a doji (harami structure).
• Operation Suggestion: Keep your hands off! This is dead time; don't waste your capital in the consolidation.
• 🔥 Friday (Turning Point Day): Weekly-Level Directional Choice
• Technical Logic: As the moving average system converges, Friday will enter the end of the triangle convergence. Coupled with the expectation of weekend news-driven games, volatility (Volatility) will shift from compression to explosion at this moment.
• Scenario A (Bullish Breakout): Break through 71.80 on high volume, confirming a right-side W-bottom breakout.
• Scenario B (Bearish Counterattack): A false breakout followed by another plunge below 68.00, creating a "long squeeze" liquidity trap.

🛠️ 【Hardcore Practical Strategy · Risk Control】

⚠️ Must-read for Left-side Traders (Contrarian / Bottom-fishers):
If you want to bet on the possible "golden pit" appearing on Friday (assuming an extreme sell-off to the 66.50-67.00 range):

1. Ironclad Position Rule: Absolutely no more than 20% position! Catching a falling knife on the left side means trading profit for risk. Once it breaks below 65, you must stop loss without thinking; don't hold on!
2. Entry Logic: Don't just place limit orders and wait. You need to see massive absorption on the 15-minute chart (panic selling being absorbed) before acting.

🎯 Right-side Traders (Trend Follower):

• Safe Entry Point: Patiently wait for a confirmed break and hold above 71.80 with increased volume (confirming a breakout of MA60 resistance) before entering.
• Selling Reference: If there is a low-volume surge to 71.00-71.50 on Thursday or Friday morning and the MACD bullish histogram fails to expand, decisively reduce your position by day trading.

💡 Summary:
The current situation is clear—there's an iron ceiling above (71.65) and a steel floor below (68.25).
The major players have already completed the "deep squat" on Wednesday. Thursday is for "gathering strength," and Friday is the real "leap" or "abyss."
When you don't understand, staying in cash is the highest wisdom.