This is important data you must read now. January employment data

At 21:30 on 260211 (China time), the US will release the official January employment report, while also adjusting the employment model, which may result in the disappearance of 1 million jobs.

Today is the decisive day of the week. Data below expectations will directly impact interest rate cuts. Non-farm payroll data will also be released on Friday, and the two are interconnected and influence each other. The chain reaction linking the two will lead to consecutive declines in the Nasdaq, probing the bottom at 27,898 points.

Key Indicators and Market Expectations (Pre-release Forecast)

🔹 1) Non-Farm Payrolls

Market consensus expects moderate growth: most institutions estimate around 50,000–75,000 people. Specific forecasts:

FactSet survey median ≈ 75,000 people (institutional forecast range 50k–85k).

Bloomberg survey median around 69,000 people.

Analyses by institutions like JP Morgan suggest the job market has already slowed significantly.

Goldman Sachs predicts a relatively weaker figure: around 45,000 people.

➡️ Conclusion: While forecasts differ, the overall market expectation is significantly lower than the historical growth rate of the past few years, reflecting a trend of slowing employment growth.

🔹 2) Unemployment Rate

Expected to remain around 4.4%, with no significant change compared to December.

Multiple institutions forecast the unemployment rate to remain flat, with no significant increase.

🔹 3) Average Hourly Earnings

The market focuses on wage growth trends, a key data point for measuring wage pressure and inflation pressure.

Institutional forecasts suggest a month-on-month figure possibly in the 0.3%–0.35% range.

🔹 4) Annual Employment Data Revision

Another market focus in this employment report is the "benchmark revision" of historical data, which may significantly lower the total non-farm payrolls for the past few months or even the past year (previous data showed a reduction of about 911,000 people).

📈 Why is this employment report particularly important?

✔ Delayed Release: Originally scheduled for February 6th, it was postponed to today due to the government shutdown, making the market more sensitive to trends in new jobs, unemployment, and wage growth.

✔ Signs of Labor Market Weakness: Private sector "ADP" and job vacancy data already show slowing employment, which may affect judgments on economic growth and monetary policy expectations.

✔ Impact on Fed Policy: If employment data falls far below expectations, it will increase market bets on future rate cuts; conversely, if it exceeds expectations, it may maintain tighter interest rate expectations.

📌 Core Summary (Investment & Analysis Perspective)

Core Indicator

Market Expectation

Significance

Non-Farm Payrolls

~50,000–75,000

Trend determines job market strength

Unemployment Rate~4.4%

Whether it rises will affect judgments on economic resilience

Average Hourly Earnings~0.3%+

Related to inflation and consumer spending power

Benchmark Revision

May significantly revise down past data

Changes long-term view of the labor market

Market Focus Suggestions at Data Release

Weak employment numbers (far below expectations)

→ May strengthen "economic slowdown/rate cut expectations," putting pressure on the USD, risk assets may strengthen short-term.

Rising unemployment rate

→ Further suggests job market weakness, may affect Fed policy path judgment.

Wage growth stronger than expected

→ May provide support for the USD and interest rates in the short term (inflationary pressures still exist).

$NVIDIA(NVDA.US)$Sandisk(SNDK.US)$Intel(INTC.US)$Western Digital(WDC.US)