🚨【SMIC】A 'Painting the Door' with Shrinking Volume Before the Life-or-Death Line? Major Players Are Planning a Liquidity Hunt! 📉

💥 Current Position: 71.55 | Key Resistance: MA60 (71.70) & MA10 (72.03)

This is a textbook "high-pressure test" pattern. $SMIC(00981.HK) stock price precisely stops right at the daily chart's bull-bear dividing line (MA60), around 71.70. This appears to be a build-up of momentum, but in the eyes of technical traders, it looks more like a carefully designed "trap".

🔬 Hardcore Breakdown: Why is this a "Bull Trap"?

Divergence: Tuesday closed positive, but trading volume (45M) significantly shrank compared to Monday (54M). A rebound without volume is just a scam. Shrinking volume in a heavy resistance zone indicates that bullish momentum has been exhausted, leaving only inertia.
Moving Average Suppression: Although MA5, MA10, and MA20 are entangled, the long-term moving average MA60 acts like a ceiling overhead. Although the MACD green bars are shortening, a golden cross below the zero axis is often followed by a "returning spear" style secondary bottom test.

📅 Main Force Trading Script Projection (Time & Price)

According to quantitative model projections, the remaining time this week is extremely critical, with the rhythm likely as follows:

🔴 Wednesday (Tomorrow): False Breakout and Liquidity Hunt (Bull Trap)

Script: There's a high probability of an inertial surge in the morning session, attempting to attack the 71.80-72.10 range.
Technical Meaning: This is the main force creating a "false breakout illusion" to lure technical traders into chasing highs while testing selling pressure above.
Signal: If the surge is not accompanied by huge volume (single-day 5B+), this is a standard "fake signal". A long upper shadow or a large bearish engulfing candle is highly likely to follow.
Strategy: Control your hands! Don't chase the rally! Those holding positions should use this surge to reduce exposure.

🟢 Friday: Sentiment Washout and Golden Pit (Capitulation & V-Shape)

Script: After the grinding decline on Wednesday and Thursday, Friday may see a concentrated release of panic selling, instantly breaking through the low from early in the week.
Technical Meaning: This is to wash out the last of the weak hands, creating a "golden pit".
Watch Level: The 67.00 - 68.00 area is a strong demand zone. Once touched and accompanied by volume spikes on the intraday chart, it could be an excellent opportunity to bet on a short-term V-shaped reversal.

⚠️ 【Left-Side Trading·Risk Control Follows This】

I know many bros want to do "left-side bottom fishing" (betting on a rebound) on Friday, but I must emphasize:

Catching a Falling Knife Risk: Left-side trading is inherently counter-trend and must be done with a stop-loss.
Position Sizing: Absolutely no all-in! It is recommended to use the pyramid position building method, with the initial position controlled within 20%.
Defensive Level: If it effectively breaks below 65.50, it means the trend has completely broken down, and you must unconditionally stop-loss and exit.

📉 Summary: Tomorrow's rise is for the sake of falling, Friday's fall is for the sake of rising. Misstep the rhythm by one beat, and you'll get slapped on both cheeks. If you don't understand, staying in cash is the best defense.