Red envelope rally, hold stocks through the holiday!

$Shanghai Composite Index sh000001$ Yesterday, A-shares directly stood up! The Shanghai Composite Index surged 1.41%, firmly holding above 4100 points, closing at 4123 points. The ChiNext board soared even more by 3%. Over 4600 stocks rose across the entire market, with a median return of +1.29%. The money-making effect was directly maxed out!

However, there's a detail to remind everyone: The trading volume of the two markets was 2.2 trillion yuan, only about 100 billion yuan more than the previous day. The volume and the gain clearly don't match. After all, big capital and hot money have basically taken early holidays. Without volume, the market can hardly skyrocket. Don't get carried away by a single bullish candlestick!

The biggest problem with the current market is still poor sustainability. It's like playing whack-a-mole; surging high and then falling back is the norm. There are very few stocks that can stabilize at high levels. Absolutely do not chase after the lagging follower stocks; the risk-reward ratio is extremely low. It's purely carrying the sedan chair for others.

Compared to overseas markets, we are moving too conservatively. US stocks, Japanese stocks, and Korean stocks are rising like meme stocks, while A-shares are steadily pushing forward like an old man pushing a cart—a typical slow bull rhythm~

This week is the pre-Chinese New Year red envelope market. A big red envelope was given out yesterday, and there will likely be more in the following days, letting everyone celebrate the New Year happily and stimulate consumption. This wave's rhythm is very steady!

⚠️ Important reminder: The 4110-4190 range was previously the regulatory cooling zone. Whether they will intervene this time, everyone just needs to watch the market signals closely.

Currently, there are three types of stocks in the market. How to allocate depends on your risk appetite.

1. High-position strong: Chip semiconductors, commercial aerospace, non-ferrous metals, space photovoltaics
2. Mid-range fluctuating: Chemicals, robotics, AI applications
3. Low-position lurking: Brokerages, consumption, innovative drugs

My suggestion: Balanced allocation, hold and don't move!
In a rotational market, switching stocks back and forth is the most disadvantageous. The stocks in your hand will eventually get their turn to rise sooner or later. Patient holding is stronger than anything.

The index is highly likely to fluctuate within the 4000-4200 point range before the holiday. There are 4 days left this week. It's entirely possible to charge towards 4200 points, but remember: Don't get carried away, don't chase highs!

Should we hold stocks over the holiday?

My personal clear suggestion: Mainly hold stocks. The reasons are very practical:

1. Chinese New Year is late this year. After the holiday, it's already March with the Two Sessions, which historically brings market expectations.
2. Before April, the China-US atmosphere is relatively stable, no major surprises.
3. The Fed won't rapidly shrink its balance sheet. Worries about a US stock market crash are overthinking.
4. The Chinese New Year holiday is prone to fermenting new market themes; there are surprises every year.

Position reference:

High risk: 80-90%
Steady type: 50-60%
Able to attack and defend, happily celebrate the New Year~

2026 will be a wide-range fluctuating slow bull market; volatility will increase. Just identify the direction and hold steady!

Now let's look at the sector aspects:

Commercial Aerospace (Strongest Theme)

Adjustment time and space are sufficient. Whenever there's a market move, it leads the charge.
But before a high-capacity leader emerges to lead the team, don't expect a second wave. Track first, don't chase the rise.
Recently, there are catalysts like rocket recovery operations, space photovoltaics, and in-orbit verification news for brain-computer interfaces. Wait patiently for stabilized targets.

AI Applications (Completely Exploded)

Seedance2.0 was released over the weekend. The market is shouting "last year ds, this year sd," which is essentially the AI application market.
Watch the bellwethers Zhangyue and Chinese Online. If these two remain strong, then dig for laggards.
The faster AI iterates, the fiercer the server demand, and data centers benefit simultaneously.

Resource Stocks (Watch Price Increases)

Focus on: Chemicals, dyes, MLCC, optical fiber.
For rare earths, focus on: Praseodymium-neodymium oxide has risen over 23% since the beginning of the year. Institutions see it breaking the previous high of 1.1 million yuan/ton.
The 15th Five-Year Plan directions: Solid-state batteries, nuclear fusion, brain-computer interfaces, quantum technology—all will get their turn in the rotation.