EagleTrader
2026.02.09 09:36

ET Trader Interview|Technical Analysis Is No Longer Used for Prediction, but for Self-Discipline

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In interviews with EagleTrader traders, we have encountered many who excel in technical analysis, where it often plays a crucial role in their strategic systems.

In our conversation with Lin Xianhao, we heard a different perspective—trading is not about predicting the market, but about managing one's own behavior.

It is this mindset, different from "spotting market trends," that has gradually helped him shed aggressiveness and instability, and under the constraints of rules and discipline, establish a more sustainable trading approach.

However, this understanding did not come from the start. Looking back at his trading journey, one finds that behind it lies a process of repeated trial and error and self-correction.

Starting in Instability

Lin Xianhao's entry into the trading market was not a "standard path." He admits that he has been in the trading industry for 3 years, with 1 year of exposure to forex trading, and his journey has been unstable, with trading experiences being intermittent. This non-linear growth experience is actually closer to the reality of most traders—repeatedly confirming direction through attempts, pauses, and returns.

What keeps him in the market is not short-term profits, but the appeal of trading itself. In his view, trading is both fascinating and brutal. He wants to prove himself in this market and, more importantly, achieve freedom through trading. It is this characteristic of "brutality coexisting with possibility" that brings him back to the screen time and again.

A Turning Point in Trading Perception

In trading decisions, Lin Xianhao does not overly rely on any single analytical method. He clearly defines his decision-making weights: technical analysis accounts for 20%, fundamental analysis for 40%, and intuition and experience for 40%. The formation of this ratio stems from his renewed understanding of technical analysis.

When reflecting on his growth path, he mentioned that he learned a lot about technical analysis from the very beginning of his trading journey, but it was always hit-or-miss. It wasn't until later that he gradually realized that technical analysis is also just a form of probability analysis; it is not used to predict market trends, but to limit a trader's behavior. This shift from "predicting the market" to "managing oneself" became a key milestone in the maturation of his trading style.

When asked about the key to long-term stable profitability, his answer is extremely restrained—light positions + confidence. In his view, maintaining an eternally optimistic confidence in trading is crucial, but the premise is not to get carried away after hitting a stop-loss, believing that one will eventually recover, and not to rush into forming a gambling mentality with heavy positions that leads to consecutive losses. This restraint is precisely the mark of his gradual departure from emotional trading.

Manifestation of Mature Trading Behavior

Lin Xianhao's trading style is not static. The most recent significant adjustment occurred during the preliminary stage of his participation in an exam. He admits that the last major revision was when he took the preliminary exam; his trading was very aggressive before, but after participating in the exam and learning the rules, his position sizes became smaller, allowing him to wait more patiently for opportunities. The rules did not constrain him; instead, they made his trading rhythm more controllable. In the future, he also hopes to improve his risk-reward ratio more reasonably.

In terms of reducing "luck factors," his approach is equally simple yet effective—adhere to trading discipline, make a trading plan before trading, and strictly adhere to stop-profit and stop-loss after placing an order. For him, luck is never avoided but compressed through process management.

When extreme situations arise, his handling appears particularly decisive. If he suffers a significant loss under a heavy position, he will choose to close the position directly because, in his view, a major loss with a heavy position indicates that the market did not respond to what he considered a great trading opportunity; it's better to close the position and wait for the next opportunity. When a heavy position is profitable but experiences a significant pullback, he will first reduce the position and then move the stop-loss line above the cost line to ensure a profit or at least no loss.

In risk allocation, he has set clear boundaries for himself: assuming the bearable risk is 100 points, each trade on average only occupies 10 points of risk. He does not deny that high risk may bring high returns, but he is also soberly aware that greater risk may also lead to greater losses.

As for the recovery period after a drawdown, his experience is that it takes an average of four to five trading days to return to the peak. The key is to stay steady after a drawdown occurs and not rush to recover.

Establishing Consistency Within Rules

In Lin Xianhao's view, trading consistency is not about mechanical repetition but about consistently following one's own principles. He believes that trading consistency refers to making trades that align with one's own trading principles and entry/exit rules, without impulsively increasing position sizes or recklessly placing orders based on data-driven market moves. When he notices a deviation in his strategy, he prefers to pause, stop trading, observe the market, and wait for conditions that suit his strategy before acting again.

His biggest gain from participating in this exam lies not in the result but in the process itself—it constrained his trading discipline, and trading with light positions stabilized his mindset. The rules became a mirror, helping him see his own trading behavior clearly.

His advice for newly registered traders is equally straightforward and practical: strictly adhere to stop-losses, don't rush to pass the exam, learn to standardize your trading behavior within the exam, and seek trading opportunities within the rules.

From his initially intermittent trading experiences to gradually understanding probability, position sizing, and discipline, Lin Xianhao has slowly developed a more stable trading rhythm during the EagleTrader assessment process.

For traders, what matters is never just a single outcome, but gradually building a sustainable, replicable system of trading behavior within rules and self-discipline—and this is where professional trading truly begins.

If you also want to become an EagleTrader trader like Lin Xianhao, click:

https://member.eagletrader.cn/login?inviteCode=hgEOCIB7r to learn more about the exam details. Join EagleTrader now and become a top trader with us, unleashing your trading potential!

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