US stocks hit new highs with strength, Hong Kong stocks await resonance

Amidst the resonance of multiple positive factors, the US stock market has established a new upward cycle, while the Hong Kong stock market, against the backdrop of improving external conditions, is in a critical incubation period for directional selection, with a pressing need for resonance at Monday's opening.

The market has not shown significant divergence; on the contrary, capital is rapidly flowing back from safe-haven assets to risk assets. The core logic has now shifted from "waiting for interest rate cuts" to "trading on recovery," with the strong performance of US stocks providing a new anchor for global asset pricing.

I. The Three Major US Stock Indices: Historic Breakthrough, Establishing Comprehensive Strength
US stocks have completely shaken off their previous high-level consolidation pattern and transitioned into a clear accelerated upward channel.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average has firmly held its ground after breaking through the 50,000-point milestone, demonstrating unprecedented market confidence. Expectations for the resilience of the US economy have been confirmed. The index's rise no longer relies on a single sector but presents a healthy trend of broad-based gains coexisting with sector rotation.

Led by tech stocks, the Nasdaq Composite Index's recovery strength exceeded expectations, with significant scale on Friday. Previous market concerns about excessive valuations have temporarily taken a backseat in the face of robust AI industry capital expenditures and have been alleviated through the tech stock rebound. The S&P 500 index has been lifted, with the tech sector no longer being the sole sentiment driving the index higher.

Market concerns about a "no-landing" economy have been replaced by optimism for a "soft landing," and this positive feedback is reinforcing the upward trend.

II. AI Commercialization Strengthens, Capital Returns

After experiencing short-term volatility, NVIDIA has once again become the core leader in gains, showing that market faith in AI computing power demand remains firm. Upstream companies in the supply chain like Broadcom and TSMC have also strengthened simultaneously, confirming that the certainty of AI commercialization is increasing.

The short-term pullback in Amazon's stock price, previously triggered by massive AI infrastructure investments, has been interpreted by the market as "determination for long-term investment." The stock price quickly recovered and turned upward, with its long-term AI layout also becoming a hot flow for adding positions.

After experiencing earlier fluctuations, Tesla's stock price has returned to an upward channel with expectations of surpassing 100 million battery swaps and new progress in autonomous driving. While individual stock performances have ended, sector confidence has arrived accordingly.
III. Hong Kong Stock Market Environment: Volatility Impact, Improvements Become More Specific

Although the overall performance of the Hong Kong stock market has not been as dazzling as that of the US market, downside risks have been largely released, making stock prices relatively more attractive.

The Hang Seng Index has been seesawing repeatedly around the 26,500-point level, failing to hold above 26,500 but not completely falling either. Although it has not followed the US market's significant rally, it has held key support levels. The Hang Seng Tech Index has been fluctuating around the 5,300-point level and needs a catalyst boost starting Monday.

Tencent Holdings has experienced intense volatility under the influence of US tech stock movements, attracting substantial buying. It only awaits further development.

After undergoing earlier adjustments, Alibaba's valuation has become more attractive. With the continuous efforts of domestic consumption policies, Alibaba's upward reaction is expected to be slightly faster.

Driven by the Spring Festival consumption peak season, Meituan's fundamental expectations have somewhat recovered, but its stock price still requires substantial operational improvements to achieve significant gains.

BYD Company's growth in the new energy sector is currently slightly sluggish, with its price fluctuating below HKD 100. Long-term investors can continue to deepen their focus.

Driven by expectations of a global semiconductor cycle recovery, SMIC's technical indicators are beginning to show signs of stabilization and are expected to follow US tech stocks in recovery.

The strong breakthrough of the US stock market provides an excellent external environment for the Hong Kong market. Once expectations for a Fed rate cut in March are further confirmed, the Hong Kong market is expected to welcome a dual opportunity of "catch-up rally + recovery."

The US market has already taken the lead, establishing a strong trend indicator. Although the Hong Kong market appears restrained for now, its reaction is unlikely to be too poor. Opportunities belong to those investors who can clearly see the direction of the US market and patiently lie in wait for undervalued assets in the Hong Kong market.

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