Interpretation of weekend market hot topics

$Shanghai Composite Index sh000001$ The resilience of the A-share market recently has been fully demonstrated — despite the consecutive sharp declines in the US stock market earlier, which should have dragged down A-shares with a high probability, not only did they not follow the decline, but they have also turned positive against the trend in the past two days, truly a case of "the scenery is uniquely good here." This also fully illustrates that A-shares are now charting their own distinctive path, no longer blindly following the movements of external markets.

However, a question arises: last night global stock markets went completely wild! US stocks surged directly, with the Dow Jones Index even breaking through the psychological barrier of 50,000 points. Chinese concept stocks were even more impressive, soaring over 3.7%. Many friends are asking: can A-shares continue to rise next week?

My answer is very clear: Yes! Why? Market principles are clear — when they should have fallen but didn't, they are highly likely to rise subsequently. This is a principle understood by seasoned investors.

Looking back at the recent trend, everyone should still remember: when the market index fell to 4002 points, I mentioned in an article that the low point had already appeared and the year's "red envelope" rally would soon begin. After that, the market rebounded for two consecutive days, but without significant volume. I promptly reminded everyone that the market was highly likely to experience a secondary bottom test, but there was no need to panic, as such a test is actually a good opportunity to accumulate positions. Later, the market indeed experienced a pullback, and the facts have proven that our analysis throughout this period has been largely accurate.

Now, the most crucial factor is still volume! Everyone must remember this point: if the rebound next week is accompanied by volume, we are highly likely to receive a big "red envelope" before the Chinese New Year; but if it remains a low-volume rebound, there will likely be selling pressure around next Wednesday — after all, the New Year is approaching, and leveraged funds need to withdraw, making the pre-holiday selling pressure hard to avoid.

Next, let's review the key news from last night to this morning. Each item could affect the movement of A-shares next week, so please pay close attention:

1. US Stock Market Surge, Chinese Concept Stocks Soar

Last night, the three major US stock indices collectively closed higher, with a quite impressive performance: the Dow Jones rose 2.47%, directly surpassing 50,000 points to set a new closing high; the Nasdaq rose 2.18%, and the S&P 500 rose 1.97%.

This surge in US stocks was mainly driven by the semiconductor and precious metals sectors within tech stocks. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index surged 5.7%, with Intel rising nearly 8% and Broadcom rising over 7%. Why are semiconductors so strong? The core reason is that Jensen Huang from NVIDIA stated that the demand for artificial intelligence is "staggeringly high."

To be honest, this is how the market is now. Previously, various themes were hyped; now, the focus is on Jensen Huang's statements. A single remark from an international giant can drive an entire sector, with the hype coming first. Therefore, the chip/semiconductor sector in A-shares is highly likely to become one of the leading forces in next week's rally.

Additionally, Chinese concept stocks surged over 3.7%, which is a significant positive for the Hong Kong stock market. A rise in Hong Kong stocks often leads A-shares to follow. However, I must remind everyone that the key remains volume. If the market continues with low volume, be cautious of the resistance near the 4150-point level and avoid blindly chasing highs.

2. State Council's Major Statement: Focus on These Directions

Recently, the State Council held two important meetings: a State Council executive meeting and the 10th plenary meeting of the State Council. After carefully reviewing the meeting contents, the key points are two statements. Everyone must understand them thoroughly as they relate to future investment directions:

First, in key areas such as infrastructure, urban renewal, public services, emerging industries, and future industries, we must deeply plan and promote a batch of major projects and significant projects. Simply put, infrastructure investment is about to ramp up, and it will be in four directions simultaneously: traditional infrastructure like road and bridge construction, urban renewal through the renovation of old residential areas, public services like hydropower stations, and emerging and future industries such as AI+ and quantum technology.

The most critical among these is the last one — future industries, which also include power grid equipment and AI infrastructure. These are potential hotspots that may emerge later, and everyone should pay close attention.

Second, we must achieve greater breakthroughs in developing new quality productive forces, strengthening the domestic economic cycle, and increasing household income. We all know that the three drivers of the economy are investment, exports, and domestic demand. Over the past two years, our economy has been mainly driven by exports, but export pressure is significant this year. Therefore, the focus going forward is to strengthen the domestic economic cycle and increase household income, stimulating the economy through domestic consumption. At the same time, by developing new quality productive forces, we will promote the high-end transformation of industries, shifting enterprises from "cutting prices" to "optimizing value." This is the long-term direction.

3. Central Bank and Seven Other Departments Take Action, Virtual Currencies Plunge, A-Shares Benefit Indirectly

Recently, virtual currencies like Bitcoin have suffered a severe plunge! In the early hours of this morning, Bitcoin once fell to a low of $60,000, halving from its historical high of $126,000 in October 2025 and hitting a new 16-month low.

The key issue is that there is a large amount of leveraged trading in virtual currencies like Bitcoin. The current plunge carries an extremely high risk of forced liquidation, potentially wiping out many investors. The notice issued by the central bank and seven other departments to strengthen the regulation of virtual currencies is essentially pushing capital out of the virtual currency market. This outflowing capital is highly likely to seek safer investment channels, and A-shares are one of the options. Therefore, this can be considered an indirect positive for A-shares.

To be honest, recently, whether it's US stocks, gold and silver, or Bitcoin — assets once considered safe havens — many people thought buying them would provide shelter, but the result? Quite a few have been "wiped out," suffering heavy losses.

The principle is actually simple: watch it rise high, watch it feast, watch it collapse. The world is like this, constantly cycling. No asset can keep rising forever, and no asset can keep falling forever. The only constant is change itself. The most important thing in investing is to respect the market and not blindly follow trends.

4. New Regulations for Pre-made Dishes Arrive, Pay Attention to This Sector

There's another recent piece of news: the draft regulations for pre-made dishes have been released. It clearly states that dishes prepared in central kitchens may not be classified as pre-made dishes. Moreover, pre-made dishes cannot use preservatives, and their shelf life cannot exceed one year.

Everyone probably still remembers the Xibei incident from a while back. With these new regulations, according to the standards, dishes supplied by Xibei's central kitchen would no longer be classified as pre-made dishes. This news is a positive for the pre-made dish sector, but there's a problem — pre-made dishes are still too expensive, which is a key constraint on the long-term development of this sector. Everyone should pay close attention to the sector's reaction going forward and avoid blindly chasing the rally.