$HANS CNC(03200.HK).

Han's CNC, Convergence and Game Theory on the First Day

Based on the performance on the first day of listing (February 6, 2026) and the latest financial data of Han's CNC's H-shares, the main support points for its future market trend are the following four core factors, which collectively form the "moat" for the stock price:

1. Explosive Earnings Growth (Strongest Support)

This is the most fundamental logic supporting the stock price. The market is trading not only the present but also the future.

* Impressive 2025 Earnings Forecast: The company expects its full-year 2025 net profit attributable to shareholders to reach RMB 785 million to RMB 885 million, representing a surge of 160%–193% compared to the same period last year (approximately RMB 300 million).

* 2026 Growth Expectations: Sell-side institutions are confident about subsequent growth, expecting the company's net profit attributable to shareholders to further climb to RMB 1.23 billion in 2026.

* Driving Factors: The global investment boom in AI computing power infrastructure has driven demand for high-end PCB boards such as those used in AI servers and high-speed switches, thereby boosting procurement demand for Han's CNC equipment.

2. Valuation Safety Cushion (Price Support)

For H-share investors, the entry price offers a significant advantage, providing a buffer for the future market.

* Substantial Discounted Issuance: The final offer price of the H-shares was at a discount of approximately 46.5% compared to the A-shares, the largest among A-to-H projects during the same period. This means the entry cost for H-share investors is far lower than that for A-share investors.

* Discount Persists on First Day: Even though the H-shares closed up 14.82% (at HKD 110) on their first trading day, there remains a discount of about 33.6% compared to the A-share closing price today (RMB 147.16). Such a price gap typically attracts capital seeking catch-up opportunities in the H-share market.

3. Industry Leader Position and High-Growth Sector

* World's Largest Manufacturer: By 2024 revenue, Han's CNC is the world's largest manufacturer of dedicated PCB production equipment, with a global market share of 6.5% and a domestic market share of 10.1%.

* Direct Beneficiary of AI Dividend: As a leader in PCB equipment, the company directly benefits from the demand for PCB capacity expansion driven by the construction of global AI computing centers. Moreover, the proportion of high-value product sales is increasing, optimizing the profit structure.

4. Support from Top-Tier Cornerstone Investors (Confidence Support)* Star-Studded Lineup: This IPO attracted top-tier international institutions such as GIC (Government of Singapore Investment Corporation), Hillhouse Capital, Morgan Stanley, and Schroders, as well as industry chain clients (e.g., Shenghong Technology, Will Semiconductor).

* Lock-up Effect: Cornerstone investors subscribed to approximately 50% of the offering size (about USD 310 million). This portion of shares is locked up, reducing floating supply in the market and benefiting stock price stability.

💡 Summary

The core support logic for Han's CNC's future market is: "Low valuation entry + High earnings growth realization."

As long as the demand for AI computing power does not recede, and the company's 2025 and 2026 earnings forecasts materialize as scheduled, the significant discount of H-shares relative to A-shares and the industry position recognized by institutions will be the main drivers supporting its stock price to rise amid fluctuations.