$Strategy(MSTR.US) is now 80% below its peak; during the last bull-bear transition, it dropped by 90%.

Of course, no two situations are exactly the same.

You can analyze the declines of other crypto stocks compared to the last cycle, as well as digital currencies.

Another dimension is the duration of negative mining costs, miner bankruptcies, and production cuts, which can also be compared to the last bear market.

Path projection:

There will likely be many projects, institutions, and exchanges collapsing or going bankrupt—FTX from the last cycle is a familiar example.

Why does this happen? Because the crypto space operates in a legal gray area with minimal regulation, and these institutions often have poor risk management, coupled with extreme volatility.

The trigger for this bear market was the minor crash last October, but liquidity dried up, with $19-20 billion in leveraged liquidations, altcoins dropping 30%-70%, and market sentiment completely evaporating.

Only after several bankruptcies and collapses will the market gradually stabilize.

What’s different this time is that U.S. stocks remain strong, so MSTR probably won’t drop 90%. But if U.S. stocks start falling too, it’s a sure 90% drop.

$BitMine Immersion Tech(BMNR.US)