🚨 [In-depth Research Report] ETH 2000 Defense Battle Review: Is it a "Golden Pit" or a "Meat Grinder"? 📉

"When liquidity recedes like the tide, what we see is not naked swimmers, but blood-stained chips all over the ground. This week's market perfectly illustrated what 'structural collapse' means."

📊 Market Recap | Market Review
This week (February 2-8), the crypto market underwent an epic stress test. As our "Volatility Model" warned at the start of the week, February 4 (Wednesday) became the "singularity" of this market—bullish defenses collapsed instantly under the dual pressures of tightening macro liquidity and on-chain selling pressure. $ETH/USD(ETHUSD.HAS) slid unresistingly from the 2300 level and last night even broke through the 2000-point psychological barrier, plunging to an extreme low of 1740.

🌍 Macro Context | Macro & Fundamentals
Why such a brutal drop?

Liquidity Drought: Rising expectations of global central bank balance sheet reductions led to widespread risk-off sentiment, with the Nasdaq pullback triggering a crypto market reaction.
Weak Fundamentals: Ethereum L2s are severely draining liquidity, mainnet gas fees remain low, deflationary logic fails in a bear market, and institutional funds (ETFs) show net outflows.
Geopolitical Disturbances: Recent global uncertainties have accelerated capital flows back into dollar-denominated assets, putting pressure on non-dollar assets (including crypto).

🧬 Technical Alpha | Hardcore Technical Breakdown
The current candlestick pattern is a textbook example of "violent recovery after oversold conditions."

📉 Catastrophic Breakdown: The weekly candlestick engulfed the past two months of consolidation. The daily MA5 has rapidly descended to around 2033, forming a strong "ceiling pressure."
📈 Divergence (V-Shape):
In early trading today (February 6), the 15-minute and 1-hour RSI briefly touched single digits (<10), signaling extreme panic.
Prices then rebounded violently from 1740 to above 1890, with intraday volatility nearing 15%. This "deep V" is usually not a reversal but a "mean reversion" triggered by short covering and aggressive left-side capital inflows.

🧠 Strategy & Action | Trading Logic
The market is currently in an "ICU observation period." While the heartbeat has resumed (rebound), the skeleton (trend) has already fallen apart.

⏰ Key Time Windows: Review & Outlook

February 4 (Confirmed): The model's predicted turning point window accurately captured the start of the main downtrend.
February 6 (Ongoing): Our defined "high-volatility game day." Bulls and bears will engage in brutal trench warfare around 1950.

⚔️ Trading Strategy Matrix:

🛡️ Right-Side Conservative (Trend is King):

Core Logic: The rebound is an escape wave. The 1950-2000 range was previously a high-volume zone and has now turned into a "tombstone resistance."
Action: Watch for signs of price rejection at highs. If long upper shadows or weakening volume appear in the 1950-1980 range, it’s a high-probability spot to enter short positions.

🗡️ Left-Side Aggressive (Catching Falling Knives):

⚠️ Risk Warning: Catching falling knives is high-risk—keep positions under 5% and strictly enforce stop-losses!
Core Logic: Bet on the support validity of the 1-hour Bollinger lower band.
Action: If prices retest 1820-1850 and stabilize, lightly position for a short-term rebound targeting 1920. Exit quickly—no lingering.

💡 Analyst's Note | Hidden Yuan Notes
"In a downtrend, all supports exist to be broken, while all resistances hold firm. 1740 may be a temporary bottom, but until we reclaim 1980, treat every rally as the market handing you an 'escape ticket,' not a 'get-rich-quick pass.'"