【True Insight Finance】Weak US labor data; ECB and BoE hold steady
U.S. job openings fell to the lowest level since 2020, while corporate layoffs in January more than doubled year-on-year. The European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged, and the Bank of England also held steady but adopted a dovish stance.
Overnight Highlights
– U.S. stocks closed sharply lower, with Microsoft (MSFT.US), Amazon (AMZN.US), and other heavyweight tech companies dragging the Nasdaq to its lowest level since November after Alphabet (GOOGL.US) said its AI-related capital expenditures could double in the race to dominate the emerging technology. U.S. Treasury yields fell, with the two-year yield hitting a four-week low as two economic indicators pointed to weaker-than-expected labor market conditions ahead of next week’s nonfarm payrolls report. The dollar rose to a two-week high, while the pound plunged after the Bank of England narrowly voted to keep rates unchanged. Oil prices fell nearly 3% in volatile trading after the U.S. and Iran agreed to hold talks in Oman on Friday, easing concerns over Iranian crude supply. Gold and silver tumbled as a stronger dollar and broad market sell-off prompted investors to dump precious metals.
International News
– U.S. job openings in December fell to the lowest level since 2020. Corporate layoff announcements in January more than doubled year-on-year, hitting the highest level for the period since 2009.
– U.S. initial jobless claims last week exceeded all economists’ estimates in a Bloomberg survey.
– The U.S.-Russia New START treaty expired on Thursday, with Trump calling for a new nuclear arms deal with Russia rather than extending the old one.
– Argentina and the U.S. signed a trade and investment agreement on Thursday, agreeing to eliminate tariffs on hundreds of goods.
– U.S. Treasury Secretary Besant said it’s up to Trump to decide whether Kevin Warsh would be prosecuted for refusing to cut interest rates if he becomes Fed chair.
– The ECB kept rates unchanged as expected, with President Lagarde downplaying the impact of euro strength and reiterating that inflation is in an ideal position.
– France is reportedly set to discuss euro strength at next week’s EU summit, with Lagarde pledging to ensure leaders consider measures to enhance the bloc’s long-term resilience.
– The Bank of England voted 5-4 to keep rates unchanged, adopting a more dovish stance than expected. Governor Bailey appeared to endorse market expectations of a 50% chance of a March rate cut.
– The Epstein-linked political scandal has plunged U.K. Prime Minister Starmer into crisis, reigniting doubts about his leadership and hammering the pound.
– Trump said Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi will visit the White House on March 19 and backed her ruling coalition to win Sunday’s election. A Japanese media poll showed the LDP is set to win a far-majority 300 seats in the lower house election.
– Musk denied Reuters’ report on a Starlink phone, saying SpaceX isn’t currently developing one.
– Anthropic released a new AI model specialized in financial research, sending shares of Moody’s and other financial services firms lower. OpenAI launched a new platform to help businesses deploy AI agents more easily.
– Amazon (AMZN.US) said it will spend $200 billion on AI this year, far exceeding analyst expectations. The stock plunged after hours.
– Bitcoin briefly fell below $63,000 as leveraged bets unwound, erasing all gains since Trump’s election win, with related stocks also hit. JPMorgan strategists argued Bitcoin is more attractive than gold in the long run, with greater upside potential once sentiment rebounds.
– Macro hedge funds reportedly performed strongly in January, with Haidar delivering a 19% return. Some funds are turning away new money after big gains, sources said.
Greater China News
– China plans to improve public service convenience for foreigners, supporting more overseas e-wallets for domestic use.
– A cybersecurity platform under China’s MIIT warned of OpenClaw open-source AI agent security risks.
– The SHFE will raise price limits and margin requirements for copper, gold, silver, and other futures contracts from February 9.
– Panama’s president denied that CK Hutchison was under threat, saying the country would comply with a Supreme Court ruling not to award both ports to the same company.
– The WSJ reported that Nvidia complained about overly strict U.S. chip rules on China, saying they could stifle demand and ultimately boost Huawei.
– Han’s CNC will list in Hong Kong on Friday after its public offering was oversubscribed more than 440 times. United Family Healthcare will also debut the same day with its offering oversubscribed over 2,700 times.
– Syngenta has reportedly begun selecting banks for its multibillion-dollar Hong Kong IPO, with CICC and UBS assisting in preparations.
– Nigeria plans to bring in a Chinese firm to operate a refinery under its state oil company, which would mark China’s first investment in a major Nigerian refinery project.
– Stellantis said it has moved part of its supply chain out of China due to tariffs and other factors.
Commodities & Forex
– The Bloomberg Dollar Index rose to a two-week high, with the Norwegian krone leading losses among G-10 currencies.
– Crude futures fell for the first time in three days after Iran confirmed talks with the U.S. Silver and gold saw another wave of heavy selling.
Earnings & Data Watch
– U.S. February UoM Consumer Sentiment (Prev: 56.4, Est: 55).
– U.S. February 1-Year Inflation Expectations (Prev: 4.00%, Est: -).
Source: Golden Horse Capital Management (Hong Kong) Limited
Author: Terry Chow
Proofreader: Emily Zheng
The copyright of this article belongs to the original author/organization.
The views expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not reflect the stance of the platform. The content is intended for investment reference purposes only and shall not be considered as investment advice. Please contact us if you have any questions or suggestions regarding the content services provided by the platform.
