$XIAOMI-W(01810.HK) maintains a bearish view, for the following reasons:

1. Non-ferrous and precious metals, storage, have surged. Mobile phones, chips, and vehicle manufacturing costs have risen sharply, yet they are engaged in a price war, offering interest-free and low-interest policies, which are effectively disguised price cuts. It is estimated that overall profits will be cut by 10 percentage points.

2. Buybacks are both good and bad. The amount is too small, like a drop in the bucket. The stock price, which should have free-fallen, is now slowly declining, giving many people hope while also trapping many.

3. Many say not to worry as long as the fundamentals are intact. I initially thought the same, but then I realized: isn’t Lei Jun the fundamentals of Xiaomi?! Now, his public image has collapsed in the eyes of many, which is also a sign of deteriorating fundamentals. Of course, the cars are fine, but many outsiders think otherwise.

3. Many hope the launch of the Yu9 will boost the stock price, but I think this is nearly impossible. The car is good, but the market is too competitive. Buyers of this model are older, aiming to compete with the Li Auto L9 and Aito M9 markets—people aged 40-50, who generally have low favorability toward Xiaomi, some even feeling it’s low-end and embarrassing. So sales won’t be high.

4. Looking back at the Su7 and Yu7 launches, sales were huge, orders exploded, but a large portion were scalper orders. The recent new Su7 launch shows orders in over ten days haven’t matched two hours back then. This is both good and bad. Scalpers have turned into Xiaomi haters, and sales won’t be as impressive.

5. The "Human-Car-Home" ecosystem—phones, cars, appliances—compared to peers, I don’t think Xiaomi’s stock price is falling. I see it as a return to rational valuation. Have you considered that these three businesses combined are already worth 700-800 billion? Top 3 phone sales are true, but mostly mid-to-low-end models.

6. Is the future just this? I think there’s still hope, but not now. In this market where everything is exploding daily, will you have the patience and resolve to wait? I believe everyone’s choices will lead to a good ending.