Still-stalemated market conditions - Review from October 17-23

Long time no see, dear readers. There has been been almost no updates in the past week; this is probably the longest break since I started sharing. The reason is that I went on another family trip—traveling with both the elderly and young children is really not easy: compared to traveling with just my wife, there was almost no private time for reflection.

Last Friday, the 17th, at 5 PM, we finally arrived in Osaka. Basically, after landing, we went straight to the hotel, and the only activity was a lavish family dinner: a black truffle and Wagyu beef set.

Many friends and netizens have doubts: children under two years old can't remember where they've been, so why go through the trouble of taking them out? The key is actually to create shared memories for the elderly and us.

The Hang Seng Index continues to move sideways, with temporary resistance at 26,050 and support at 25,500. It is expected to continue fluctuating within this range. Until the end of next week, the chance of volatility without significant gains or losses is very high. Therefore, in terms of short-term strategy, consider going long when support at 25,500 shows a clear rebound to 25,600 with $UB#HSI RC2810J(58140.HK), setting the defensive position at 25,450; consider going short when resistance at 26,050 breaks below 26,000 with $UB#HSI RP2803M(56773.HK).

Tech stocks remain relatively dull for now, and caution is needed as some individual stocks may have already peaked $SMIC(981.HK) $HORIZONROBOT-W(9660.HK). However, heavyweight stocks like $Alibaba(BABA.US) $BABA-W(9988.HK) remain very stable, likely moving between 168 and 155 for now. After two weeks or more of consolidation, there is still a chance for another upward move. $MEITUAN(3690.HK) has once again reached the key point of $UB#MTUANRC2603R(61992.HK) and a defensive position at 98. $TENCENT(700.HK) shows a similar trend to Alibaba, likely moving sideways between 645 and 620.

Recently, the enthusiasm for certain stocks has started to cool. $FIBOCOM(638.HK) almost hit its peak at the first bid and then continued to decline. $ZIJIN GOLD INTL(2259.HK) also shows signs of peaking. Unless it can rebound above 145, it is likely to continue falling.

For the Nasdaq Index, caution is needed as several potential peaks may be forming: first, the reappearance of strange meme stocks like $Beyond Meat(BYND.US). History repeats but does not duplicate, and every time small-cap stocks surge wildly, the market is likely entering its final frenzy. Therefore, hedging with $FI2CSOPNASDAQ(7568.HK) should be considered.

$Tesla(TSLA.US) fell after earnings, with the market worried about profits declining more than expected. If it breaks below 420 today, be cautious of a pullback to 400, possibly forming a double-top decline $XI2CSOPTSLA(7366.HK). Conversely, if it opens low and quickly rebounds above 440, consider going long with $XL2CSOPTSLA(7766.HK).

$NVIDIA(NVDA.US) remains constrained by the major resistance at 185. Any drop below 175 warrants hedging with $XI2CSOPNVDA(7388.HK). $Oklo(OKLO.US) has fallen over 40% from its peak and may see a small rebound at 110, but the upward trend in nuclear power has likely reversed. $Netflix(NFLX.US) saw a large gap-down with heavy volume, indicating major capital outflow due to worse-than-expected earnings; it is worth considering for shorting. The decline in $Rigetti Computing(RGTI.US) has broken the uptrend since September. Although 32 is a strong support level, any rebound here is likely temporary.

Positions and Trades
Last week, I tried a short position on $HKEX(388.HK). Although the stock only fell 2%, the leveraged return was quite good. Recently, I’ve been using guerrilla tactics for strategy.

The long position on $Tesla(TSLA.US) failed. If Tesla falls further here, it could signal a double top. I will look for an exit as soon as the market opens.

I initiated a short position on $POP MART(9992.HK). The decline here likely satisfies the head-and-shoulders pattern, with heavy volume indicating rapid capital flight.

I tried a short position on Nasdaq Index futures. If this is indeed a double-top formation, a small bet here is reasonable.

$QuantumScape(QS.US) rebounded strongly after earnings, meeting and exceeding expectations. I will continue trailing the stop along the 50-day moving average. $XI2CSOPMSTR(7399.HK) is a key focus, as $Strategy(MSTR.US) weekly charts confirm a downtrend.

Reflection
Every trip brings insights, as the mind truly works when relaxed. Letting thoughts flow freely often leads to great ideas. The biggest takeaway this time was understanding the concept of "consensus": Why can a stock rise for a long time? The answer lies in institutional and big players reaching a long-term consensus on it. Why do some stocks rise for only a week or two before stalling? Because the consensus is driven by hot money and transient capital. In other words, the stronger the consensus among major players, the stronger and longer the uptrend. This year’s gold $FL2CSOPGOLD(7299.HK) is a perfect example. Conversely, if the consensus shifts from institutions to retail, the uptrend weakens—$POP MART(9992.HK) is a recent example. The concept of "consensus" elevates strategic thinking.

Strategy
Currently, both Hong Kong and U.S. stocks lack continuity—very few individual stocks can sustain gains. In this market, a conservative strategy is reasonable. Even if some stocks emerge, position management must be cautious. At the same time, hedging is prudent $FI2 CSOP HSI(7500.HK) $XI2CSOPHSTECH(7552.HK). In Hong Kong, sportswear stocks show promise, so I’m closely watching $LI NING(2331.HK) $BOSIDENG(3998.HK) for potential long positions $UBLININ@EC2605A(19929.HK).

Your comments and likes are the motivation for me to keep sharing. Thank you all.