$NIO(NIO.US) is once again seeking funds!

On September 10th, Nio announced its plan to issue an additional 181.8 million Class A ordinary shares. As mentioned by Dolphin Research in the article Finally 'understood'! But can Nio really 'reborn'?, Nio currently has only 11.9 billion yuan in net cash, which is still at a level where it has not yet left the ICU. The company is still in a very cash-strapped state, so this additional issuance is not unexpected. Dolphin Research also reminded that when dealing with Nio, one should leave a safety cushion for themselves.

As soon as the news of Nio's financing was released, Nio's pre-market stock price in the US dropped by 10%. However, Dolphin Research believes that after this issuance, Nio's short-term negative factors have basically been exhausted. This issuance will give Nio at least another two quarters of survival time, and the cash flow on hand should be able to support it until the second half of 2026.

Therefore, Dolphin Research expects that once the negative impact of the issuance is fully absorbed, the focus will quickly return to the competition around the ES8 model. As emphasized in the article Finally 'understood'! But can Nio really 'reborn'?, the ES8 is currently a crucial model for Nio's 'life-and-death battle'. Nio will definitely prioritize sales, and the probability of this model becoming a hit is relatively high.

However, considering the slow transition to the new platform, the weak new car lineup next year, and the major car manufacturers' upcoming 'big battery + small fuel tank' route optimization in 2026 to address urban car usage pain points, Dolphin Research expects the competition to return to the battle between extended-range and pure electric routes. It remains uncertain whether the sales momentum of Nio's ES8 and the Le Tao L90 can be maintained. Therefore, Dolphin Research leans towards the investment value of Nio being a short-term new car cycle gamble, but long-term holding remains unsafe.

Thus, although if the ES8 can once again become a best-seller in the 400,000 yuan class (with sales of 10,000 units or more), and its high gross margin can accelerate Nio's significant loss reduction in the fourth quarter, referencing the rapid P/S multiple increase to 1.5 times during the successful initial listing of the Le Tao L60, Dolphin Research estimates Nio's target market value at 130 billion yuan +, which is about 30% + upside from the current stock price. However, Dolphin Research still reminds that even if Nio has upward potential, one must ensure they have enough safety cushion before engaging in the opportunity gamble under the ES8's volume increase.