Apple: iPhone's 'minor tweaks' to maintain appearances, is the AI big move still being held back?
Since 2020, Apple has established a fixed rhythm in its iPhone product strategy: launching two entry-level models and two high-end models each year to cover different consumer demand segments.
In exploring model sizes, Apple attempted to cater to small-screen user preferences by introducing the iPhone mini version in the iPhone 12 and iPhone 13 series. Unfortunately, this model did not receive ideal market feedback, and the exploration of the small-screen route has temporarily come to an end.
Subsequently, Apple shifted its focus to the large-screen market, launching the iPhone 14 Plus, iPhone 15 Plus, and iPhone 16 Plus. However, judging from market performance, the sales of these large-screen models still did not meet Apple's expected targets, and the breakthrough effect in the large-screen segment was limited.
Against the backdrop of consecutive failures in both 'small-screen and large-screen' strategies, the upcoming iPhone Air is highly anticipated. Apple hopes to open a new track in the fiercely competitive smartphone market with a lighter body design, breaking the current sales bottleneck and reigniting user purchasing interest.
Previously, during Apple's financial report, two 'pending' matters (the Google lawsuit verdict and the autumn product launch) were resolved in September:
a) Google lawsuit verdict: Dolphin Research previously commented that it was better than expected.
Although Google is prohibited from signing exclusive agreements with phone manufacturers for its products (including Google Assistant and Gemini), it is not prohibited from agreeing to obtain default positions (non-exclusive) through paid revenue sharing, such as paying for pre-installation/placement of Search, Chrome, Gemini, and Assistant.
This verdict requirement is actually quite similar to the current default search revenue sharing between Google and Apple, where Google pays Apple over $20 billion annually to secure the default search engine position on terminals. This alleviated market concerns about Apple's software business, and Apple's stock price achieved a 3%+ increase on the day the verdict was announced.
b) Autumn product launch: The focus remains on iPhone products. With the failure of both the small-screen Mini and large-screen Plus, this launch replaces the Plus model with the Air model, attempting to gain market favor through 'lightweight'.
As for the other three iPhone 17 products: The basic version 'adds more without increasing the price,' with the minimum storage configuration raised to 256GB or more. Pro/Pro Max has no significant changes.
With the increase in short video and other mobile applications, the previously offered 128GB products by Apple can no longer meet market demand. Referring to the situation of 'State Subsidies' channel merchants, the 128GB version of iPhone products is generally in stock, while the 256GB products sometimes experience 'out of stock' situations. The company has finally responded to market demand changes by canceling the 128GB version and upgrading all products to 256GB.
Although the new iPhone still uses TSMC's 3nm process (not 2nm), the 'add more without increasing the price' operation of the iPhone 17 basic version is still expected to boost Apple's sluggish mobile phone status in recent years.
Imagine, the current iPhone 17 256GB is priced at 5,999 yuan (last year's iPhone 16 256GB was priced at 6,999 yuan, a direct drop of 1,000 yuan), combined with the assistance of the State Subsidies policy (meeting the standard of below 6,000 yuan), the final price is only 5,499 yuan. This basic version of the iPhone 17 new product still has the opportunity to attract users pursuing 'cost-effectiveness'.
Overall (a+b), the recent result of the Google lawsuit has laid the foundation for the continued growth of the software business. The iPhone product is the focus of this autumn launch. Compared to last year's launch, this year's iPhone new products have some changes but still do not bring surprises. Whether the 'lightweight' model can stand out still needs market verification. The 'add more without increasing the price' basic version can attract the attention of users pursuing 'cost-effectiveness.' Continuing to use the 3nm chip, there are no more innovation points provided.
Considering the company's current market value (3.5 trillion USD), corresponding to the company's 2026 fiscal year net profit of about 29 times PE (118.7 billion USD) (assuming revenue +6.5%, gross margin 46.6%, tax rate 15.6%). Referring to the company's historical valuation range (25-35 times PE), the current valuation is below the median of the range, indicating that the market's expectations for the company are relatively low.
If the new iPhone still does not have an unexpected sales performance, the company will continue to grow at a single-digit rate in the next fiscal year. Among companies with single-digit growth rates, Apple can enjoy nearly 30 times PE mainly because the market values the company's position in the high-end mobile phone market, industry chain discourse power, and software ecosystem barriers.
Apple's autumn launch introduced the iPhone 17 series, iPhone Air, iWatch, AirPods Pro 3, and other new products. Among them, the most significant iPhone product has some changes compared to last year, but the performance of the 'lightweight' Air new product and the 'add more without increasing the price' basic version still needs market feedback, but both changes are just 'minor adjustments,' without providing more innovation points in iPhone products.
In the context of major manufacturers significantly increasing AI investment, Apple's narrative in the AI field is still very limited in this launch. If the company wants to break through the valuation range upwards, it still needs to provide more innovation to the market, especially the demonstration of Apple's capabilities in AI.
$Apple(AAPL.US) The specific content of this autumn launch is detailed below:
I. Core Information of Apple's Launch
1) iPhone Products
Change 1: Cancel Plus model, introduce Air series. After the failure of the small-screen Mini and large-screen Plus, iPhone plans to take the 'lightweight' route this time. 5.6mm thickness is the thinnest in iPhone history.
Change 2: iPhone 17 basic version 'adds more without increasing the price'. The most obvious is that the storage of the entire iPhone 17 series starts at 256GB, while the pricing remains the same as last year's iPhone 16 basic version 128GB price. In addition, compared to the previous generation, the iPhone 17 basic version has upgrades in processor and camera, and the screen has also been significantly improved, all of which reflect the 'cost-effectiveness' of this basic version.
iPhone Pro/Pro Max has basically no changes. From this iPhone new product, Apple expects to boost terminal sales through the basic version 'cost-effectiveness' + Air version 'lightweight' strategy.
2) Apple Watch: Three products were released this time, Apple Watch SE 3, Apple Watch Series 11, Apple Watch Ultra 3. All three products are equipped with last year's S10 chip and support 5G network for the first time.
3) AirPods: It has been three years since the last generation of AirPods Pro, and the release of AirPods Pro 3 this time meets expectations. The new AirPods product still has 'highlight' features—'real-time translation.' Driven by Apple Intelligence, it can translate multi-language conversations in real-time after gesture activation.
If both parties wear AirPods Pro 3, cross-language communication can be completed without a phone screen, automatically lowering the speaker's volume and broadcasting the translation during translation. Apple Intelligence is not yet available in the Chinese market, so it is temporarily unavailable.
II. Detailed Content of Apple's Autumn Launch
2.1 iPhone 17 Series: 'Add more without increasing the price' basic version, 'lightweight' Air version
1) iPhone 17
Screen and Performance: 6.3-inch screen (ProMotion 1-120Hz adaptive refresh rate, 3000 nits brightness), the screen is also equipped with ultra-ceramic panel 2, with scratch resistance three times that of the previous generation. The A19 chip uses the third-generation 3nm process, with a 6-core CPU + 5-core GPU, neural network engine optimization, and GPU efficiency improved by 20% compared to A18.
Camera System: 48-megapixel fusion dual camera (main camera + ultra-wide angle), the main camera achieves 2x telephoto through fusion technology, front 18-megapixel Center Stage camera (square sensor, twice the size of the previous generation, supports horizontal selfies without rotation, can simultaneously enable rear and front camera video).
Battery Life: 24-hour maximum battery life, 20-minute fast charge to 50% (with 40W+ power charger), available in black, white, mist blue, sage green, lavender purple. Storage options are 256GB and 512GB.
2) iPhone Air
Revolutionary Design: 5.6mm ultra-thin body (thinnest iPhone), weighing only 165 grams. The screen is a 6.5-inch ProMotion, with ultra-ceramic panels on the front and back + titanium metal middle frame. Compatible with thin MagSafe battery (total battery life 39 hours video playback).
Performance Highlights: iPhone Air is equipped with the latest A19 Pro chip (6-core CPU + 5-core GPU), along with the new Apple wireless network chip N1 and C1X baseband chip, providing faster network connections and more stable signal performance.
Notably, iPhone Air fully transitions to eSIM (can activate two eSIMs). According to Apple's official information, iPhone Air is normally sold in the domestic market, but currently only supports China Unicom eSIM (limited to the national version), and users need to go to offline business halls to complete eSIM card opening and activation. This is Apple's first strong push for eSIM usage in the national version models, which may accelerate domestic operators' layout in eSIM in the future.
In terms of color, iPhone Air offers deep space black, cloud white, light gold, and sky blue
3) iPhone 17 Pro/Pro Max
Professional Upgrades:
Camera: Full series 48-megapixel triple camera (main camera + 4x optical zoom telephoto + ultra-wide angle), Pro Max supports 8x optical zoom (200mm), supports ProRes RAW shooting and Genlock synchronization for the first time (adapted for professional film production).
Battery Life and Cooling: Pro Max video playback 39 hours, new cooling system (first built-in VC heat dissipation plate + aviation-grade aluminum alloy), continuous performance improvement by 40%. Although the national version retains the SIM card slot, the battery capacity is slightly lower than the no-slot version, but compared to the previous generation, whether it is local video playback or streaming video playback, the battery life is extended by about 4 hours
Chip Performance: Equipped with Apple's strongest A19 Pro chip (6-core CPU + 6-core GPU), full power can achieve 40% higher continuous performance than the previous generation. Also equipped with Apple's designed N1 chip for Wi-Fi 7, Bluetooth 6, and Thread. In addition, the Pro Max model offers a 2TB storage option for the first time
Price: (Memory starts at 256GB for the entire series) iPhone 17 starts at $799, Air starts at $999, Pro starts at $1099, Pro Max starts at $1199 (first launch of 2TB version).
2.2 Apple Watch Series: Breakthrough in Health Monitoring
Although all three new products are equipped with last year's S10 chip, they support 5G network for the first time.
1) Apple Watch Series 11
Health Core Upgrades:
High Blood Pressure Warning: Analyzes vascular response through optical sensors, based on research data from over 100,000 participants, and warns of potential high blood pressure after 30 days of monitoring in the background. This feature is not yet available in the national version.
Sleep Score: Analyzes sleep duration, stages, wake-up times, etc., provides classification scores and improvement suggestions, developed based on 5 million nights of sleep data.
Other Upgrades: 24-hour battery life, 5G cellular network, glass display screen scratch resistance is twice that of Series 10, new flow dial and Liquid Glass design.
2) Apple Watch SE 3
Key Updates: First time adding always-on display, S10 chip (supports double-tap gesture), fast charging speed increased by 2 times (15 minutes charge for 8 hours), new wrist temperature sensor (can estimate ovulation day).
Health Features: Continues heart rate, fall/car crash detection, adds sleep apnea notification and sleep score.
3) Apple Watch Ultra 3
Extreme Scene Enhancement:
Satellite Communication: Redesigned radio and antenna, can connect to satellites 800 miles away, supports satellite SOS emergency contact.
Display and Battery Life: Largest screen (wide-angle OLED+LTPO3), all-weather display screen refresh rate increased from once per minute to once per second, battery life extended to 42 hours, titanium metal case (100% recycled).
Price: SE 3 starts at $249, Series 11 starts at $399, Ultra 3 starts at $799, synchronized release on September 19.
2.3 AirPods Pro 3: Innovation in Noise Cancellation and AI Translation
Audio and Noise Cancellation Upgrades
Active Noise Cancellation (ANC): Still equipped with the H2 chip, but Apple claims that thanks to the new multi-hole acoustic architecture and foam-filled ear tips, the active noise cancellation effect of the new generation AirPods Pro 3 is 2 times that of the previous generation and 4 times that of the first generation.
Real-time Translation Function: Driven by Apple Intelligence, it can translate multi-language conversations in real-time after gesture activation. If both parties wear AirPods Pro 3, cross-language communication can be completed without a phone screen, automatically lowering the speaker's volume and broadcasting the translation during translation. Apple Intelligence is not yet available in the Chinese market, so it is temporarily unavailable.
Ergonomics and Health Features
Ear-fit Design: Based on 10,000 3D ear scans and 100,000 hours of user research, the earphone size is reduced, and 5 sizes of ear tips are launched to fit more ear shapes.
Heart Rate Sensor: Built-in Apple's smallest heart rate sensor, combined with device-side AI models, supports heart rate and calorie tracking for 50+ types of sports, synchronizes data with the fitness app.
Battery Life and Price
Battery Improvement: Battery life in active noise cancellation mode increased from 6 hours to 8 hours, transparency mode single charge can be used for 10 hours (4 hours more than the previous generation). It is also the first AirPods to reach IP57 level, with better dustproof, sweatproof, and waterproof performance.
Price and Release: $249, released on September 19, pre-order starts today.
Dolphin Research's recent articles on Apple's financial report:
August 1, 2025, conference call "Apple (Minutes): Capital expenditure growth mainly comes from AI-related investments"
August 1, 2025, financial report commentary "Apple: AI is difficult to produce, still relying on iPhone to save the day"
Risk disclosure and statement of this article: Dolphin Research Disclaimer and General Disclosure
