Analysis of Major Rare Earth Companies in the U.S. and EU (Grok AI)

As the first loss and the largest floating loss stock (nearly 10,000) after investing in US stocks, I carefully reviewed it. $MP Materials(MP.US)

First, there was no strict profit-taking and stop-loss, blindly optimistic when floating profit was 7k and declining. The option stop-loss was too aggressive.

Second, impulsive, did not strictly follow the left-side investment strategy to operate. After a slight rebound in stock price, it was completely impulsive entry. Impulsiveness occurs once in a while, this is an emotional issue that must be resolved.

However, I am still optimistic and plan to hold long-term, add some stocks in the 55-60 range. Then see if I should sell a 55 put to turn the profit positive.

Why am I optimistic? Because between China and the US, it is currently a life-and-death struggle. The common goal of autonomy and not being choked! Currently, the US and Europe have only this one big son available.

The following is a market analysis of mainstream rare earth companies in the US and EU, based on the latest online information and industry trends, combined with the background of companies like MP Materials (MP). The analysis will cover company lists, market positions, latest performance, growth drivers, risks, and future outlook.

List of mainstream rare earth companies in the US and EU

United States

MP Materials Corp. $MP Materials(MP.US)

• Overview: Operates the Mountain Pass mine in California, the only active rare earth mine in the US, focusing on the production of light rare earths such as neodymium and praseodymium (NdPr). Building a Texas plant, aiming to achieve a complete supply chain from mine to magnet, expected to start mass production by the end of 2025.
• Market Position: Leader in the US rare earth industry, NdPr production reached 563 tons in Q2 2025, a record high. Has cooperation agreements with General Motors and Apple, and receives support from the Department of Defense.
• Latest Performance: NdPr revenue grew 283% in Q2 2025, but stock price recently retreated from a high of $76 to $64.18 (closing on September 4), with a market value of about $1.14 billion.

USA Rare Earth, Inc. (OTC: USAR)

• Overview: Located at the Round Top project in Texas, exploring rare earths such as neodymium, dysprosium, terbium, and key minerals like lithium and gallium. Aims to establish a supply chain independent of China.
• Market Position: Emerging company, not yet in large-scale production, but has government support, plans to become an important participant in the US rare earth supply chain.
• Latest Performance: Not yet publicly traded actively, limited market data, but its strategic positioning is attracting attention, especially in defense and new energy fields.

Energy Fuels Inc. $Energy Fuels(UUUU.US)

• Overview: Mainly a uranium producer, but entered heavy rare earth material production through cooperation with Vulcan Elements, breaking China's 30-year control over heavy rare earths. Announced in August 2025 the production of 99.9% purity dysprosium oxide.
• Market Position: Diversified mining company, rare earth business is its emerging growth point, benefiting from the US government's push for domestic supply chains.
• Latest Performance: Stock price has been boosted by rare earth breakthroughs, but specific rare earth revenue data has not been disclosed, market is focused on its heavy rare earth potential.

European Union

Pensana Plc (LSE: PRE)

• Overview: Headquartered in the UK, owns the Longonjo rare earth mine in Angola (one of the largest undeveloped NdPr resources globally, with reserves exceeding 100,000 tons of NdPr oxide), plans to build a processing plant in Saltend, UK, forming a supply chain from mine to magnet.
• Market Position: Potential leader in the EU rare earth industry, supported by the UK government, aims to reduce dependence on China.
• Latest Performance: Project is in the development stage, not yet in mass production, stock price is volatile, affected by financing and project execution progress.

Rainbow Rare Earths Ltd. (LSE: RBW)

• Overview: UK-listed company, extracts rare earths from phosphogypsum tailings through the Phalaborwa project in South Africa, producing magnet rare earth oxides such as NdPr, dysprosium, and terbium. Lower cost due to no traditional mining and crushing.
• Market Position: Innovative rare earth company, focused on recycling and low-cost production, favored by EU sustainable development and circular economy policies.
• Latest Performance: Phalaborwa project is progressing smoothly, but affected by South African geopolitical risks, stock price is volatile.

LKAB (Sweden, state-owned enterprise)

• Overview: Swedish state-owned mining company, plans to extract rare earths from iron ore tailings, announced in 2024 the discovery of Europe's largest rare earth deposit at the Kiruna mine.
• Market Position: Potential rare earth supplier within the EU, supported by EU policies, aims to reduce dependence on Chinese rare earths by 2030.
• Latest Performance: Project is in early development stage, has not contributed significant revenue yet, but long-term potential is huge.

Market Analysis

1. Market Overview

Global Rare Earth Market Size:

• The global rare earth market was valued at approximately $3.95 billion in 2024, expected to reach $6.28-7.38 billion by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.2%-8.6%.
• Main drivers are the growth of electric vehicles (EVs), wind energy, electronics, and defense applications, especially the demand for magnet rare earths such as NdPr, dysprosium, and terbium.
• China dominates global rare earth production (about 60%) and processing (nearly 90%), the US and EU are promoting supply chain diversification through policies and investments.

US Market:

• The US market is expected to reach $394 million by 2032, with a CAGR of 7.5%, driven by investments in electric vehicles and battery technology research and development.
• Government support: The Biden administration provides grants, tax incentives, and loan guarantees through the Defense Production Act and Inflation Reduction Act, supporting companies like MP Materials and Energy Fuels.
• Geopolitical: US-China trade tensions (such as Trump's threat of 200% tariffs) are prompting the US to accelerate localization, reducing dependence on 80% of rare earth imports from China.

EU Market:

• The EU passed the Critical Raw Materials Act in 2024, aiming to reduce dependence on Chinese rare earths to below 65% by 2030, incentivizing domestic production and recycling.
• Demand is driven by electric vehicles, wind energy, and defense, with strong demand for NdPr and dysprosium from the German automotive industry.
• Challenges include lack of processing expertise and high capital costs, companies like Pensana and Rainbow need to overcome technical and financing obstacles.

2. Growth Drivers

• Electric Vehicles and Clean Energy:
  • EV sales increased from 1 million units in 2017 to 10 million units in 2023, each vehicle requires several kilograms of rare earth magnets.
  • Wind turbines require about 600 kilograms of NdFeB magnets per unit, global wind energy installation growth is driving demand.
• Defense Demand:
  • Rare earths are used in precision-guided weapons, communication systems, and surveillance equipment, the US Department of Defense provides contract support for MP Materials and Energy Fuels.
• Policy Support:
  • The US funds rare earth exploration through the Earth MRI initiative, the EU provides tax incentives for recycling and mine development.
• Circular Economy:
  • EU's Rainbow and emerging US recycling projects (such as MP Materials' recycled magnet program) utilize tailings and waste, reducing costs and environmental impact.

3. Major Risks

• China's Market Dominance:
  • China controls global rare earth prices, may affect US and EU company profitability through export restrictions (such as 2010 to Japan) or increased supply to lower prices.
• High Capital and Environmental Costs:
  • Rare earth mining and processing involve radioactive waste management, capital-intensive and require strict environmental compliance, extending project timelines.
• Execution Risks:
  • MP Materials' Texas plant and Pensana's Saltend refinery face technical and financing challenges, delays may cause stock price volatility.
• Price Volatility:
  • Rare earth prices peaked in 2022, declined after 2023 due to increased supply from China, may compress profit margins.

4. Company Comparison

5. Latest Performance and Market Sentiment

• MP Materials: Strong performance in Q2 2025 (NdPr revenue +283%), but insider selling of $58.6 million in stock raises market concerns, stock price fell from $76 to $64.18. X platform sentiment shows $56-60 as a buy support level, but also warns it may fall to $46-53.
• Energy Fuels: Heavy rare earth breakthrough sparks discussion on X platform, investors are optimistic about its potential to break China's monopoly.
• Pensana and Rainbow: EU companies are supported by policies, X users discuss their potential as alternative suppliers to China, but short-term volatility due to immature projects.
• Market Sentiment: X posts reflect optimistic sentiment towards rare earth ETFs and individual stocks (such as MP, UUUU), expecting mining stocks to experience "generational rise", but geopolitical risks (such as US-China tariff war) increase uncertainty.

Industry Trend Support:

• US policy push (such as Department of Defense contracts, EV investments) provides long-term benefits for MP, increasing the possibility of stock price breaking $70.
• EU companies (such as Pensana, Rainbow) may distract market attention, but MP's vertical integration model and existing production capacity make it more competitive.

2026 January $80 Target:

• Possibility is about 50-60%, depending on NdPr prices, plant progress, and geopolitical stability. If MP successfully mass-produces magnets and maintains government support, stock price is expected to reach $77-85, increasing option profit potential.

Future Outlook

• US: MP Materials and Energy Fuels will continue to benefit from government funding and EV/defense demand, but need to be wary of Chinese price competition and insider selling signals. Emerging companies like USA Rare Earth may gradually contribute market share before 2030.
• EU: Pensana and Rainbow's low-cost and environmental models are attractive, but need to overcome technical and financing obstacles. LKAB's long-term potential may emerge after 2030, becoming a pillar of EU rare earth supply.
• Investment Opportunities: Rare earth ETFs (such as MVREMX) provide diversified exposure, suitable for risk-averse investors. Individual stock investments need to focus on MP's execution progress and Energy Fuels' heavy rare earth breakthrough.

Conclusion

US and EU rare earth companies are in a supply chain diversification boom, MP Materials is the core player in the US market, benefiting from policy and demand growth, but short-term stock price volatility needs caution. EU's Pensana, Rainbow, and LKAB offer long-term potential, but development risks are high. Your MP option holdings have potential to break even, it is recommended to combine stock additions and hedging strategies, closely monitor Q3 earnings reports and geopolitical dynamics.

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