On September 5th, the small ADP data strengthened expectations for a rate cut. The market is consolidating with low volume at high levels—just avoid chasing highs and trade your own stocks patiently. Be cautious about poor non-farm payroll data today, as it may lead to an initial rally followed by a pullback.

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The small non-farm payroll data caused fluctuations, with U.S. stocks closing higher on thin volume amid a wait-and-see atmosphere.
On Thursday, September 4, the three major U.S. stock indices showed strong intraday performance, ultimately closing higher collectively.

$Dow Jones Industrial Average(.DJI.US) 

$NASDAQ Composite Index(.IXIC.US) 

$S&P 500(.SPX.US) However, trading activity was not enthusiastic, with volume remaining at subdued levels. The overall market is still in a consolidation and wait-and-see mode, with attention focused on the non-farm payroll report to be released on September 5.
The U.S. August ADP employment data released yesterday fell short of market expectations, while initial jobless claims rose. This series of data further strengthened market expectations for the Fed to implement a rate cut in September.

The services PMI data rebounded more than expected, a positive signal that alleviated concerns about a hard landing for the U.S. economy, thereby driving a stock market rebound.
Signs of cooling in the labor market are becoming more evident. The August ADP employment data showed only 54,000 new jobs, significantly below the expected 65,000 and a sharp slowdown from the revised 106,000 in the previous month. The ADP chief economist noted that while job growth was strong at the beginning of the year, it has slowed significantly due to policy uncertainty, declining consumer confidence, labor shortages, and AI-related factors.
Initial jobless claims: The figure rose to 237,000, compared to the previous and expected 230,000, indicating a slowdown in hiring and a gradual cooling of the labor market.

$Broadcom(AVGO.US) Despite beating earnings expectations, the market reacted cautiously. Its Q3 data showed adjusted net revenue of $159.5 billion, versus expectations of $158.4 billion, up 22% YoY; adjusted net profit was $84 billion, versus expectations of $82 billion, up 37% YoY; adjusted EPS was $1.69, versus expectations of $1.66.

Not only did earnings exceed expectations, but Q4 revenue guidance of $174 billion also surpassed the expected $170 billion. However, since April, Broadcom's stock has risen too much, and market expectations are too high. In after-hours trading, the stock fluctuated but ultimately ended flat.

During the CEO conference call, the mention of "significantly improved revenue prospects for fiscal 2026" briefly lifted the stock, but the market fears a repeat of NVIDIA's "buy the rumor, sell the news" scenario.

Breaking previous highs is very difficult; maintaining a high consolidation logic is the main strategy for now.

Crypto-related stocks collectively fell under dual pressures from regulation and valuation.

$Bullish(BLSH.US) continued its recent decline, falling another 9.7%.
Regulatory factors: The Nasdaq exchange announced tighter regulations on crypto-related stocks the previous day, requiring some companies to obtain shareholder approval before issuing new shares to purchase cryptocurrencies, or face delisting risks. This move aims to protect investors from risks similar to the 2021 MSTR-style cash-out.

So far this year, 124 U.S. companies have announced plans to raise $133 billion to purchase cryptocurrencies. Regulatory intervention has dampened sentiment in the sector in the short term.

The downtrend is strong and may continue for two to three more trading days, approaching the IPO price.

Market outlook: After a rapid decline, a V-shaped reversal is unlikely. Operationally, it's safer to wait for the bottom to stabilize and accumulate positions during consolidation. Patience will yield better prices.

$Circle(CRCL.US) Wait! Wait! Wait! First, wait for 100

 

NVIDIA is moving forward with volatility, and its supply chain shows clear divergence.$NVIDIA(NVDA.US) 

The stock is still consolidating below the 50-day moving average. Three key catalysts to watch:

1. Whether tech giants' October earnings reports will increase CapEx;

2. The Rubin new architecture timeline, scheduled for release in the second half of 2026;

3. Clarity on China market business, with rumors of a B30A chip priced at twice the H20, though the authenticity of this news is questionable.

The stock remains in a bearish atmosphere, with short-term potential to fall toward 160.

$Novo Nordisk AS(NVO.US) The stock is in a narrow range, and we are in no hurry to act. Long-term positions can be bought in the 50-52 range, and short-term rolling positions can be sold above 60. Patience will be rewarded.

$Unitedhealth(UNH.US) Watch the 10-day moving average. After reducing positions slightly at 315, there hasn't been a better price to re-enter below 300 or a higher price to reduce further. Hold patiently. Having a clear price target in mind keeps you calm.

$Direxion 20+Yr Trsry Bull 3X(TMF.US) After half a month of consolidation, a rebound has started. There should be more room before the rate cut. Those with low patience can reduce positions slightly above 39. Rolling positions will improve mindset.

Market analysis and strategy: September's market volatility continues. The S&P 500 has held the 6360-6400 support range twice in the short term and is likely to remain volatile until mid-September. The real test may come in late September, when it will test the range for the third time. If it fails to hold, the S&P 500 could fall back to the 6150-6200 range.

The non-farm payroll data is likely to be poor, with a high chance of downward revisions to previous data. Be wary of the market rising first and then falling.

$Hang Seng Index(00HSI.HK) 

$Hang Seng TECH Index(STECH.HK) 

$CSOP UST20(03433.HK) 

$iShares barclays 20+ Yr Treasury Bd(TLT.US) 

$FI2 CSOP HSI(07500.HK) 

$Proshares UltraPro Short QQQ ETF(SQQQ.US)