$NIO(NIO.US)

Congratulations, Boss Pi! It was also Boss Pi who introduced me to such an amazing company! I once bought at the bottom but sold at four dollars 😭. However, I have a question now. Recently, I've been trading more in A-shares and have become more cautious. The current situation is beyond the technical analysis of bottoms that Dog God is good at. From a value perspective, I wonder if it's still worth chasing now. @未来的交易员皮看穿

LongPort - 未来的交易员皮看穿
未来的交易员皮看穿

Let me try to answer:

1. Questions should be based on logic and facts

Neither the Nio ES8 third generation nor the L90 was released in Q2; both were in Q3, with L90 deliveries in Q3 and ES8 mainly in Q4. The poor Q2 earnings were already known; the key is whether they can exceed expectations, such as reducing losses. Negative shareholder equity was reported in Q1 and is also known. Back in 2019, when the stock price was around $1, shareholder equity was also negative.

2. The large pure-electric SUV market is huge

First, the large SUV market is vast enough to support companies like Li Auto and Aito, which initially survived by selling only large SUVs. Now, in a market where pure-electric vehicles have been well-educated by range-extended models, the ES8 is considered explosive and crazy, which is a testament to its product strength and cost-performance ratio. A 400k RMB car isn’t cheap, but if it’s too expensive, you can opt for the L90. If you’re buying a large pure-electric SUV, you can’t avoid Nio.

3. Can the financial situation hold up? My judgment is that it most likely can

Selling at a lower price doesn’t necessarily mean lower margins because many costs are fixed, such as R&D, stores, and salaries. The more cars sold, the lower the cost per car. However, the traffic from a hit model has a huge impact on the entire company, as seen with XPeng’s Mona3, which still achieves decent margins at 100k RMB. That said, it doesn’t mean Nio is completely out of the woods—risks and opportunities coexist. Whether going long or short, you should enter at what you perceive as the low or high point to profit from your own insights.

4. Healthy skepticism is good, but respect facts and common sense

Several netizens, whether posting or voting, have made accusations and insults detached from facts. If you actually watched the nearly three-hour launch event, you’d know the ES8 isn’t just about a fridge, TV, and big sofa. Bulls aren’t mindless either. I recommend novice users trade stocks first and only dabble in options after gaining experience. Be cautious with shorting—losses could exceed your principal.

5. Why I choose to hold Nio

I bought a Nio car and have been driving it for four years, though I’m currently underwater. I plan to drive it for ten years, averaging a monthly cost of 4k RMB. The early models already had decent product strength, and the experience was great. The company’s management was indeed lackluster for a long time, but that was a buying opportunity because improving operational efficiency takes less time than technological upgrades. The third-gen ES8 and L90 make me feel the company’s product strength is rising. This core capability, I believe, can sustain Nio’s survival and success.

Not sure if this answers your question. The above is not investment advice.

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