August 19th, continuous minor adjustments, waiting for Powell's speech to set the tone. A slight rise is expected today, and the strategy must be actively defensive.

Hello everyone, I am the Old Mischief, a practitioner of tenfold growth in five years. In the new five years, we will grow and work hard together.

Last night, after a week of gains, the US stock market took a break, with the three major indices maintaining narrow fluctuations throughout the day and closing almost flat. The market was quiet, waiting for the speech by Fed Chairman Powell at the Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday, as well as the earnings reports from major retailers like Walmart this week.
In recent years, the US stock market has experienced certain fluctuations around the Jackson Hole Symposium.
2022: Powell's hawkish statement on "continued rate hikes" led to a nearly 4% drop in the Nasdaq in a single day;

2023: The Nasdaq fell nearly 2% the day before the speech, followed by a quick rebound;
2024: Powell released "rate cut signals," causing the Nasdaq to rise 1.47% on the day, but the US stock market still retreated nearly 8% after the meeting.

This year's situation may be similar to 2024, with Powell likely to make hawkish rate cut remarks, potentially leading to an overbought correction in the US stock market.

The current market environment shows the S&P 500's dynamic P/E ratio at 25.5 times (a high since 2000), but due to the S&P component stocks' earnings increasing by 11% year-on-year in the second quarter (far exceeding the expected 4%), combined with the early correction of popular sectors like AI and crypto, funds are shifting to low positions (such as healthcare), making a 5% adjustment in the market reasonable.

$Dow Jones Industrial Average(.DJI.US) 

$NASDAQ Composite Index(.IXIC.US) 

$S&P 500(.SPX.US) The three major indices have very similar trends, and are expected to rise slightly today, stabilizing with the support of the ten-day moving average.

The operation of the indices should seize the opportunity to go short, and intraday short-term trading is recommended. After reducing positions in individual stocks, observe for a few days.

$Meta Platforms(META.US) fell over 2%, and the company plans to restructure its AI business for the fourth time within six months. The market interprets this as a short-term bearish excuse for "funds switching between highs and lows," and it will likely continue to fall slightly in the short term, but the fundamental outlook remains stable.

$Walmart(WMT.US) Analysts expect its second-quarter revenue and net profit to grow steadily, with weak dining consumption benefiting supermarket demand.
It is not recommended to bet on the earnings report, as the post-earnings trend on Wall Street is like a battle of gods, and we should not join the excitement.

$NVIDIA(NVDA.US) is hovering around 180, waiting for the earnings report. It is not recommended to bet on the earnings report at the current price, as the gains and losses are not worthwhile.

$Tesla(TSLA.US) Currently, the upward breakout operation according to the triangular range is still effective, but it requires high risk control discipline. Suitable participants can join, while others should observe.

$Microsoft(MSFT.US) is experiencing small step declines, currently below the 20-day moving average, and will be significantly affected by options next. We will observe.
$Unitedhealth(UNH.US) We reduced positions at 315, and will operate according to the range fluctuations, with two replenishments at the bottom of the 280-320 range and two reductions at the top.

$Novo Nordisk AS(NVO.US) The weight loss drug is approved + price reduction, and the stock price is expected to continue rebounding. Its Wegovy has been approved by the FDA for treating metabolic function disorder-related fatty liver disease; it also announced that the price for self-paying patients in the US for Ozempic (a popular diabetes drug) will be halved (original price for insured patients).
In the short term, it is optimistic to return to 60, and in the medium term, it may reach 70 dollars in a few months.

$Intel(INTC.US) The government's "equity for subsidies" has caused short-term sentiment suppression, with the Trump administration planning to acquire about 10% of Intel's shares for $10.5 billion (turning "Chip Act" subsidies into equity), weakening market sentiment in the short term. TSMC's $2 billion investment pushed the stock up 5% pre-market. We currently have very few holdings and are looking for opportunities to increase positions. It seems difficult to get a good price now.

 

$Circle(CRCL.US) Internal cashing out + weakening trend, the operation suggestion is to mainly observe in the short term, not to rush to bottom out, but a small amount of trial and error can be involved. From a risk perspective, there is a significant possibility of the stock price dropping another big step.

$Fortinet(FTNT.US) Currently, there is no opportunity for a second increase in positions, waiting to see if the stock price will provide an opportunity if the market corrects.

$Direxion 20+Yr Trsry Bull 3X(TMF.US) Funds from reduced positions in individual stocks can still be allocated. Both short-term and medium-term are possible.

 

Fed Watch shows that the probability of a rate cut in September is 83.6%, showing a significant decline; the probability of a rate cut in October is 92.2%. The probability of a rate cut in September has slightly decreased. The market is likely to show a decline regardless of whether the rate is cut or not.

Reduce positions in overvalued stocks! Reduce! Reduce! Partially allocate to oversold stocks. Aggressive investors can allocate 5-10% of $Direxion 20+Yr Trsry Bull 3X(TMF.US) 

$Hang Seng Index(00HSI.HK) 

$Hang Seng TECH Index(STECH.HK) 

$CSOP UST20(03433.HK) 

$iShares barclays 20+ Yr Treasury Bd(TLT.US) 

$FI2 CSOP HSI(07500.HK)