
Dolphin Research obtained a post-earnings communication from a certain channel regarding $Microsoft(MSFT.US). Here are the key points shared:
1. The main source of Azure's growth exceeding expectations: AI contribution was 'in line with expectations,' with the benefit of new capacity coming online. The remaining growth beyond expectations mainly came from non-AI core businesses.
2. Customer sources: This quarter did not mention signing large contracts with OpenAI (in fact, there are rumors that OpenAI is recently migrating some computing power demand to Oracle and CoreWeave). More contracts are from enterprise customers in non-AI fields.
3. Capital expenditure: You can use Q1's $300e * 4 = $1200e as a reference value for the full-year Capex budget for fiscal year 2026. In terms of pace, it is expected that the first half of the fiscal year will be higher than the second half. The new expenditure is not entirely invested in short-life assets like GPUs; a considerable portion will still be invested in data centers and energy infrastructure.
4. The year-on-year growth rate of M365 enterprise seats is expected to continue to slow down. Currently, Copilot has about 100 million users, including M365 enterprise edition, M365 consumer edition, Github, and Chat Copilot across various business lines. This number includes both paid and non-paid users.
5. Depreciation and other factors affecting gross margin: The total depreciation for fiscal year 2026 will continue to increase but may not accelerate. The main factor causing pressure on gross margin decline is the low efficiency of some data centers (insufficient power and space utilization).
6. The expected depreciation and factors suppressing gross margin will not lead to significant fluctuations in operating profit margin. The fluctuations in operating profit margin between the first and second halves of the fiscal year and between quarters are expected to be relatively mild and not significantly volatile (declining).
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