Countdown to Hainan's closure, China Duty Free surges 15%; Tesla's stock price falls post-earnings

0724 ｜Dolphin Research Key Focus:

🐬 Macro/Industry

1. Trump announced at the Washington AI Summit on Wednesday that the lower limit of "reciprocal tariffs" will be raised from the original 10% to 15% on August 1st, and may be increased to 50% depending on country relations. The new 15% floor means that the cost of exporting to the United States for most countries globally will increase by 5 percentage points at once. If implemented, it will directly raise the U.S. core PCE by about 0.3 percentage points, delaying the Federal Reserve's rate cut pace.

2. Trump unveiled the "U.S. AI Action Plan," which includes increasing funding for AI research and development, promoting AI technology in defense applications, establishing a cross-departmental regulatory framework, and strengthening AI talent cultivation. This plan provides policy endorsement and financial support for U.S. AI companies, benefiting chip giants like Nvidia and research institutions like OpenAI, and is a short-term positive for technology sector sentiment.

🐬 Individual Stocks

1.$CTG DUTY-FREE(01880.HK) $CTG DUTY-FREE(601888.SH)

China Duty Free's H shares expanded their intraday gains to over 18%, while A shares hit the daily limit. The surge is mainly due to the positive impact of the Hainan Free Trade Port closure. The National Development and Reform Commission is set to officially launch the Hainan Free Trade Port closure on December 18, 2025, while the Ministry of Finance and other three departments detail the post-closure goods tax policy. The closure will help Hainan build an international tourism consumption center, and the advantage of the offshore duty-free policy will be strengthened by the increased attractiveness and traffic to Hainan post-closure, driving the development of the tourism retail market. As a leader in the duty-free industry, China Duty Free is expected to maintain its lead in the Hainan retail market, and the positive expectations have stimulated the stock price increase.

2.$XPeng(XPEV.US)

XPeng's self-developed Turing AI chip has passed the most stringent international automotive-grade certification system, meaning the chip meets top standards in reliability, safety, durability, and can adapt to the complex and harsh automotive usage environment. The development of automotive-grade chips is extremely challenging, and XPeng's successful breakthrough strengthens its technological advantage in the smart car field, laying a solid foundation for subsequent product layout.

3. Dolphin Research Core Focus on Financial Reports and Conference Calls

Tesla: "Tesla's 'Life-or-Death Question': Is the Starry Sea of AI More Important Than Car Manufacturing?", "Tesla (2Q25 Minutes): Can the Starry Sea Support the Shaky Car Manufacturing Base?"

Google: "Google: The AI Wolf Hasn't Come, The Advertising King Remains Unshaken", "Google (Minutes): Cloud Business Orders Double, Computing Power Shortage Will Continue Until Next Year"

🐬 Leading Sectors

Shanghai and Shenzhen: Retailers of jewelry/toys/stationery, medical services, asset management and custodian banks;

Hong Kong Stocks: Specialty chemicals, paper products, semiconductor materials and equipment;

U.S. Stocks: Heavy electrical equipment, motorcycle manufacturers, energy equipment and services.

🐬 Focus for Tomorrow

1. Intel's financial report will be released, and Dolphin Research will track and provide interpretative analysis.

Risk Disclosure and Statement of this Article: Dolphin Research Disclaimer and General Disclosure