Blind optimism is as dangerous as excessive pessimism: When the food delivery war first began, Dolphin Research stated that the logic of $MEITUAN(03690.HK) would be tested—it would actually transform from a strong moat service e-commerce to a business with strong competitive barriers but weak entry barriers.
Many people said Dolphin Research was too pessimistic. The actual result was that $Alibaba(BABA.US) declared war as expected, and the market collectively devalued the entire sector.
In fact, when $JD.com(JD.US) initially wanted to enter the food delivery business, Dolphin Research thought that with Pinduoduo subsidizing from its own pocket and JD.com taking 60% of the state subsidies, how could a "channel distribution" retailer, which is not a "value creator" in the government-encouraged manufacturing and production sectors, justifiably earn such "anti-deflation incentive coupons".
As a result, the e-commerce landscape indeed deteriorated: JD.com quickly launched two major campaigns, a. in the public opinion war, using social security to improve rider benefits; b. in the business war, making a high-profile entry into food delivery and other service e-commerce. Basically, the subsidy money was spent reasonably and justifiably before it even warmed up, perfectly closing the loop of business logic and political awareness.
$JD-SW(09618.HK) The extent of cross-selling from this operation remains to be observed, and it's uncertain whether the company truly believes in its own cross-selling business logic, but what is certain is that the food delivery war of 2025 was indeed initiated by them.
However, after initiating it, Dolphin Research previously mentioned that $Alibaba(BABA.US), with stronger resource endowments, compared to JD.com's small-scale efforts, directly used substantial subsidies, truly pushing the summer food delivery war to its peak.
By unifying the two major battle lines of cloud and retail, a new story emerged in the cloud. The retail line also began to fight with full force. In fact, when JD.com first initiated the food delivery war, Dolphin Research had already said, "In terms of resource endowment, JD.com is several levels behind Alibaba."
In this battlefield, more importantly, regardless of whether JD.com convinced itself, $BABA-W(09988.HK) in this confrontation, unified the strategy of big retail, integrating physical goods and service goods, making categories like food delivery and supermarkets, which are essential for daily meals, the "base traffic" that must be defended under the big retail platform. Simply put, Alibaba truly treated it as a strategic battle.
The result is that the issues Dolphin Research previously questioned were validated:
“At the end of the mobile internet era, the boundaries between near-field delivery vs. far-field delivery e-commerce transactions are indistinguishable, and this chaotic battle is almost certain to happen. In the future, it's hard to talk about moats in domestic e-commerce, and it's likely that everyone will sink together into the trap of 8X PE, unable to escape. The soul-searching question is,$Meituan(MPNGY.US) how long can its high PE be enjoyed?”
But an equally important issue is that the e-commerce war has always been a phase of strengthening and weakening, and after this period of overall PE reduction, the valuations of various e-commerce companies have already fallen.
Looking forward, in the current highly oligopolistic e-commerce market, with relatively stable user mindsets, it is unlikely to directly crush a company and eliminate competitors using this method.
In fact, the general food delivery campaign occurs in the summer—when the heat reduces the willingness to dine out and university students are on summer break with abundant delivery capacity. Entering autumn and winter, it mostly subsides, with key competitors already on stage and major moves made. At the same time, with the valuations of e-commerce platforms falling to 8X PE, risk pricing is basically sufficient, and it is instead a time to slightly relax.
Especially in the current food delivery war, which is actually dragging down restaurant profits, any call to counteract internal competition could be the catalyst for stock price recovery. Moreover, Alibaba has a more important AI story (H20 has been released again), providing even greater flexibility.
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