


To be honest, the recent sell-off in European and Japanese bond markets is really hard to understand, especially in Japan. Although inflation is high, forced selling government bonds would only worsen the fiscal deficit. This sell-off was still unexpected. It feels like a deal made by the U.S. to curb the dollar's decline with its allies.

After selling US Treasuries, sell Japanese bonds; after selling Japanese bonds, sell European bonds
After the European Central Bank cut interest rates, President Christine Lagarde stated that the monetary policy cycle is nearing its end, leading to a significant drop in the European bond market, which also affected the U.S. bond market. Analysts pointed out that this transatlantic bond sell-off highlights the impact of diverging monetary policies between regions. The market expects a rate cut of about 25 basis points by the end of the year, with bets on the Federal Reserve's rate cut expectations adjusted from 56 basis points to 60 basis points
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