$NVIDIA(NVDA.US) @退休哥哥 @复利魔方3650

A brief analysis of NVIDIA's post-earnings valuation and target price:

1. Accelerating revenue growth: Excluding the impact of H20 chips (which cannot be sold due to restrictions), NVIDIA's quarterly growth was about 13-14%, higher than the previous 8-10%, indicating stronger momentum.

2. Reduced provisions: This quarter's provisions were $4.5 billion, lower than the expected $5.5 billion, showing some relief in financial pressure.

3. Stabilized gross margin: Including provisions, the gross margin was 61%; excluding provisions, it was 71.2-71.3%.

4. Next quarter guidance shows GAAP gross margin expected to rebound to 71.8%, Non-GAAP to 72%, mainly due to Blackwell chips entering full production, resolving previous margin declines from partial production.

5. Blackwell chips in full production: Full production improves margin consistency and may even lead to a slight rebound, supporting future performance.

6. Middle Eastern countries (e.g., Saudi Arabia) are investing in data centers, further driving chip demand. Global government investments in data centers are expected to continue growing.

7. Earnings forecast: This quarter's Non-GAAP EPS was about $0.93. Excluding provisions, quarterly earnings are expected to grow 8-10%. FY2026 EPS is projected at $4.20, with a conservative FY2027 estimate of $5.00-$5.50.

8. Valuation: At the current share price of ~$140, the 2026 P/E is ~30x, and 2027 P/E ~20x+, which is relatively reasonable. Mid-term target price: $160-$170, with ~20% upside potential.

What are your thoughts on the other AI stocks it has boosted? Let me know in the comments.