On May 20, $CATL(03750.HK) will officially list its Hong Kong IPO, with an expected issue price of 263 HKD per share (upper limit of the issue price), representing a 6.5% discount compared to the A-share closing price of 259.3 RMB on May 16.

There are several key points in this issuance by Ning Wang:

1) Small issuance: Issuing 118 million to 156 million shares (when both the sale volume adjustment right and the over-allotment option are exercised), diluting the current issued shares by only about 2.6%-3.4%. The actual fundraising amount is between 35.7 billion and 41 billion HKD.

2) Hot subscription: The IPO share allocation ratio is 92.5% for institutions and 7.5% for retail investors. In terms of oversubscription multiples: overall 21 times, institutions 13 times, retail investors 120 times.

3) Ultra-luxury underwriting group: The underwriting task is divided among Bank of America, CICC, CITIC Securities, JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, UBS, etc.

4) Strong cornerstone investors: Sinopec, Hillhouse Capital, Kuwait Investment Authority, Gao Yi Asset, UBS, Oaktree Capital, China Pacific Insurance, Taikang Insurance, Boyu Capital, Jinglin Asset, etc. Cornerstone subscription accounts for over 60%.

5) Overseas expansion: 90% of the funds raised will be used for the construction of the Hungarian plant in Europe.

Scarce assets, few IPO shares issued, ultra-luxury cornerstone lineup and underwriting group, the top IPO in Hong Kong stocks is basically like Ning Wang. From the perspective of gaming the IPO day stock price and earning new stock returns, Ning Wang is indeed very good.

Of course, if you look beyond the certainty of returns from new stock subscriptions and consider slightly longer-term returns:

In the 2025 dimension, the current A-share market value corresponds to about 18-19 times PE multiple in 2025.

And the corresponding fundamentals—intense competition in the domestic power battery market, a significant proportion of energy storage business in the US, although short-term tariff issues have improved, the subsequent outcome still depends on the negotiation results 90 days later.

Under the current competitive landscape with commercial barriers, it is not easy for Ning Wang to pull up from 19XPE and obtain a certain valuation premium (for detailed interpretation, see Looking at Ning Wang through TSMC: The Inescapable Cycle Fate).

PS: Overseas capacity situation

1) In 2024, Ning Wang's overseas construction projects amount to 11 billion, accounting for 37% of the total construction projects. Overseas capacity is concentrated in Germany, Hungary, and Spain. Europe is the focus of overseas capacity expansion.

2) The European "New Battery Law" will be fully implemented in 2026 (restricting import ratios), and the funds raised from Ning Wang's H-share will be used for the construction of the Hungarian plant, with a planned capacity of nearly 100GWh, expected to be put into production in 2026.

3) Ning Wang's total planned capacity in Europe reaches 174GWh (Germany 14GWh + Hungary 100GWh + Spain 60GWh), the German plant has been put into operation, while the Hungarian and Spanish plants will be put into production in 2026. Ning Wang's certainty overseas in 2026 will be relatively higher.