Dolphin Research
2025.04.22 23:39

$Tesla(TSLA.US) Quick Interpretation: Overall, Tesla has delivered what seems to be a somewhat unexpected report. In terms of top-line revenue, total revenue for the first quarter was $19.34 billion, lower than the consensus expectation of $21.4 billion observed by Dolphin Research, as well as the expectations of some major banks at $20 billion. However, in terms of overall gross margin, Tesla's gross margin for this quarter was 16.3%, slightly higher than the market expectation of 16%.

Returning to the market's primary concern regarding vehicle sales, total revenue for this quarter was $14 billion, below the market expectation of $15.5 billion. However, after Dolphin Research analyzed the pure vehicle sales price (excluding the impact of carbon credits), it was found that the corresponding vehicle sales price was $40,000, rebounding from $39,800 in the previous quarter. Dolphin Research believes this is acceptable, mainly due to the higher starting price of the new Model Y Juniper, which somewhat offset the discounts and various incentives for the inventory Model Y.

The gross margin for pure vehicle sales (excluding the impact of carbon credits) reached 12.5%. Although this represents a decline of 1.1 percentage points from the previous quarter, due to the low sales volume in the first quarter and the impact of the Model Y Juniper's production launch, the market had already anticipated this, with a consensus expectation of 12.2%. Some major banks were even more pessimistic, lowering their expectations to around 11%-12%, so this performance exceeded market expectations.

In addition, since the first quarter is generally the bottom for vehicle sales, Dolphin Research is more focused on several key issues:

1) Will the affordable Model 2.5 still be produced?

From the currently released financial report, it seems that the affordable Model 2.5 will still be produced in the first half of 2025. We will pay attention to whether more details about this model are provided in the conference call.

2) Will the sales forecast for 2025 still maintain year-on-year growth?

Currently, Tesla has not emphasized the guidance for year-on-year sales growth for 2025 in the financial report. Tesla stated that it would provide guidance in the second quarter. Since the sales volume for 2025 is closely related to the production and sales planning of the Model 2.5, Dolphin Research believes it is necessary to observe the planning situation for this model.

3) Is the Robotaxi progressing as planned?

It seems that the plan is still to pilot the Robotaxi in Texas before June as originally scheduled.

4) Is the progress of Optimus in line with previous guidance?

For specifics, please pay attention to Dolphin Research's subsequent financial report interpretation and analysis.

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