Dolphin Research
2025.04.22 04:28

The significant drop in both JD.com and Meituan today is undoubtedly due to JD.com's increasingly 'high-profile' and 'serious' approach to the food delivery business, as well as the gradual escalation of the 'public opinion war' between the two companies recently. This has made the market start to seriously consider the potential impact of the competition between the two.

Simply put, although it is still unknown how large JD.com's food delivery business will eventually become, how much market share it will take from Meituan, and how much it will drag down Meituan's per-order profit, it is too early to make any judgments or predictions. However, what is clear now is that the competition in the food delivery business will definitely be negative for both companies in the short to medium term.

For the attacking side, JD.com, the massive subsidy investment during the business expansion period and the resulting losses will drag down the overall profit of the group. The defending side, Meituan, will also face the problem of whether to increase subsidies in the short term to fight back and drag down profits, as well as how much market share will be taken in the long run.

According to recent news reports and research, JD.com's daily food delivery orders have exceeded 5 million, but due to high subsidies, the loss per order may be as high as more than 10 yuan (not necessarily accurate). If this is indeed the case, the monthly loss in the food delivery business could be as high as more than 1 billion yuan, which is a significant drag on profits.

Although it is still less than 10% of Meituan's order volume, referring to the situation of Ele.me, if JD.com's food delivery business can reach a daily order volume of around 10 to 20 million in the future, it is expected to at least no longer require a large amount of external funding and enter a state of sustainable operation.

$JD.com(JD.US) $MEITUAN(03690.HK)

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