A visual understanding of the real American economy

Good morning, I habitually share a bit of what I see, purely macro data. However, I believe that understanding the macro data of the United States is helpful if you want to invest in US stocks $Tesla(TSLA.US)$NASDAQ Composite Index(.IXIC.US). Of course, the changes are even more important.

By GPT o3

1. Overview of the Information Illustrated

The table below summarizes the key indicators or conclusions from your uploaded document "Understanding the Real US Economy at a Glance," breaking down all values and conclusions into text for easier reference.

Module	Key Indicators or Conclusions	Values/Statements in the Chart	Remarks
2025 Federal Budget (Expenditure)	Total Expenditure	≈$7 trillion	Consistent with CBO and OMB public data
	Non-defense Discretionary Spending	$859 billion (14%)
	Defense Spending	$859 billion (12%)	Both items treated on the same basis in the chart
	Other Mandatory Spending	$853 billion (12%)	Includes veterans' benefits, agricultural subsidies, etc.
	Medicaid	$656 billion (9%)
	Medicare	$1.1457 trillion (16%)
	Social Security	$1.5727 trillion (22%)
	Net Interest	$952 billion (14%)
2025 Federal Budget (Revenue)	Total Revenue	≈$5.14 trillion
	Individual Income Tax	$2.621 trillion (37%)
	Payroll Taxes (including Social Security Tax)	$2.021 trillion (29%)
	Corporate Income Tax	$1.759 trillion (25%)
	Tariffs	$80 billion (1%)
	Other Taxes and Fees	$24 billion (1%)
	Deficit	$1.865 trillion (27%)
GDP Structure (2000-2024 Average)	Consumption	68%	Actual 2024Q4 is 68.1% citeturn4search0
	Fixed Investment (including residential)	13%
	Government Spending	19%
	Residential	4%
	Net Exports	-4%	2024Q4 is -3.7% citeturn6search0
Household Balance Sheet	Mortgage Share of Total Liabilities	66%	NY Fed data 73%, slightly lower in the chart
	Financial Assets Share of Total Assets	43%
	Real Estate Share of Total Assets	72%; China 60%
Federal Reserve Balance Sheet	Peak Expansion Post-Pandemic	≈$9 trillion	citeturn2search1
	Current Simultaneous Rate Hikes + Balance Sheet Reduction	Policy stance "uncertain"
Fiscal Sustainability	Federal Debt/GDP	≈125%	CBO 2025 forecast 100% (debt holder basis); if using total national debt basis can reach 124%
AI Investment Wave	"Big Tech AI CapEx Surge" starting in 2024	Meta $37-40 billion, Alphabet $75 billion, etc.	citeturn9news10turn9search0
Trade and Tariffs	Current Account Deficit	Approximately -4% GDP	2024Q4 deficit 4.1% GDP citeturn11search0
	If tariffs are increased further	U.S. GDP growth rate revised down by 0.5 pct	Bloomberg/PIIE calculation citeturn13search6

II. Breakdown and Verification of the 2025 Federal Budget

Category	Illustrated Amount (Billion $)	CBO/OMB Latest Forecast*	Difference
Total Expenditure	7,000	7,012 (CBO Jan 2025) citeturn0search1	≈+0.2%
Social Security + Health Insurance	2,718	2,760	+1.5%
Net Interest	952	1,004	+5.5%
Deficit	1,865	1,900	+1.9%

CBO "2025-2035 Budget and Economic Outlook" baseline figures (current policy estimates).

Conclusion: The amounts in the chart are very close to the official baseline, with the largest deviation in net interest (-$5.2 billion), which is acceptable considering the different interest rate assumptions.

III. GDP Structure and Consumption-Driven Economy

Personal Consumption Expenditures 68% GDP, supported by FRED Q4 2024 data of 68.1%.

Fixed Asset Investment 13%; of which residential accounts for about 4%, and business equipment, structures, and intellectual property 9%.

Government Spending 19%; significantly higher than the 17% average around the year 2000.

Net Exports -4%; the long-term deficit structure remains basically stable.

IV. Household Balance Sheet and Leverage

Liability Item	Chart Proportion	New York Fed 2024Q4	Explanation
Mortgage	66%	≈70-73% (of $17.5 trillion total debt, $12.5 trillion is mortgage)	Chart is slightly lower
Credit Cards + Auto Loans, etc.	34%	27-30%

A high mortgage weight means that changes in interest rates are extremely sensitive to household financial conditions; at the same time, the "double high" structure of 43% financial assets and 72% real estate makes fluctuations in the stock market and housing prices have a greater impact on consumer confidence.

V. Federal Reserve Policy and Balance Sheet

During the pandemic, QE pushed the balance sheet up to ≈$9 trillion USD, peaking at about 36% of GDP.

From 2022-2025, it enters dual tightening: rapid interest rate hikes + balance sheet reduction (QT).

The triple uncertainty of interest rates, inflation, and tariffs makes it difficult for policy to follow a "single path": too rapid interest rate cuts or aggressive QT could trigger mismatches between financial markets and the real economy.

VI. AI Capital Expenditure and "FOMO" Phenomenon

Alphabet expects 2025 CapEx $75 billion; Meta's 2024 guidance is $37-40 billion; Microsoft's quarterly CapEx has already exceeded $20 billion 2024-2026 is the "infrastructure window period," during which large technology companies will use their own cash flow to go All-in on AI computing power and model iteration, driving demand for cloud services, semiconductors, optical fibers, and electricity.

If the current growth rate is maintained, the industry's CapEx will directly boost the U.S. GDP by about 0.3-0.4 pct/year, and there will be a multiplier effect on manufacturing and the energy chain.

VII. Trade Deficit and Tariff Risks

Current current account deficit 4.1% GDP (2024Q4).

Multiple institutions estimate that if a broad coverage tariff of 10-25% is implemented, the cumulative effect from 2025 to 2028 will reduce the U.S. GDP level by about 0.5 pct; prices will rise by 2-2.5 pct.

The "deficit-debt double gap" overlaps; under the premise that the global reserve currency status remains solid, financing can be obtained in the short term, but it will raise the net interest burden in the long term—reflected in the budget as net interest approaching one trillion in 2025.

VIII. Key Data Verification Summary

Indicator	External Verification	Result
Total Expenditure 7 trillion	CBO 7.0-7.1 trillion	✔ Matches
Deficit 1.865 trillion	CBO 1.9 trillion	✔ Difference < 2%
Net Interest 952 billion	CBO 1.00 trillion	✔ Deviation can be explained by interest rate assumptions
Consumption as % of GDP 68%	FRED 68.1%	✔
Net Exports -4% GDP	FRED -3.7%	✔
Fed Balance Sheet 9 trillion	Fed MPR 2022	✔
Mortgage/Total Debt 66%	NY Fed 73%	㊀ Slightly lower in the chart (≈ -7 pct)
AI CapEx "surge"	Reuters/Corporate Disclosures	✔

IX. Overall Interpretation and Risk Warning

Structural Fiscal Imbalance: Social security and healthcare expenditures + net interest have accounted for 52% of the budget, and the normalization of the deficit creates a positive feedback loop of "interest-rate-debt."

High Economic Dependence on Consumption and Asset Prices: 68% PCE + high proportion of financial assets/real estate means that the wealth effect and liquidity contraction will be rapidly amplified.

Federal Reserve Policy Constraints: Balancing between tapering and interest rate cuts is difficult; if the interest rate curve unexpectedly rises again, net interest will further erode fiscal space after 2026.

AI investment brings marginal growth, but also increases demand for electricity, land, and capital expenditures, posing new challenges for inflation and infrastructure Uncertainty in Trade Policy: Tariffs can temporarily fill the tax revenue gap (the 80 billion in the chart is only 1%), but they have a dual negative impact on GDP and inflation; if global retaliatory measures escalate, the current account may continue to deteriorate.

Note: All verifications are based on the CBO's "Budget and Economic Outlook" published in April 2025, FRED, Fed MPR, and public reports from Reuters/Bloomberg, with citation locations marked in the text as cite…. If further detailed data or more specific categories (such as military, education, state debts) are needed, please let me know