morning_wind
2025.04.17 06:23

Continuing from the previous point, for the pessimists who emphasize macro risks, I think they are close to being agnostics. Regarding $Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US), they feel that the Taiwan Strait is becoming increasingly unstable, which will also be hollowed out in the U.S., compounded by antitrust issues or supply chain-induced declines in gross margins, and further exacerbated by the bursting of the AI bubble. For $Alphabet(GOOGL.US)/$Meta Platforms(META.US), they believe that domestically, Trump will target them, and externally, most countries with a trade surplus with the U.S. are service deficit countries, and Japan and the EU will definitely have to bleed them. As advertising platforms, trade-related advertisers account for a large proportion, and this will also be a significant blow, further compounded by the debuff of the AI bubble bursting; no matter what, this current decline cannot be covered. This logic can almost be applied to many stocks, after all, this is a time when even government bonds are facing issues.

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