Tariff shocks continue; ASML earnings report intensifies concerns | Today's important news recap

0416 | Dolphin Research Focus:

🐬 Macro/Industry

1、The National Bureau of Statistics released data showing that the first-quarter GDP reached 31.8758 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.4% at constant prices, and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.2% compared to the previous quarter. The performance was relatively better than expected. In March, total retail sales of consumer goods amounted to 4.094 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.9%, indicating a stabilization in consumption. Dolphin Research's commentary on retail sales can be found in March 2025 Retail Sales: Is the Spring of Consumption Really Coming with Policy Support?. Today, Hong Kong and A-shares markets fell broadly in the morning session, but funds entered near the close in the afternoon, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing strongly in the green.

2、The White House announced that due to (China's) retaliatory measures, Chinese goods exported to the U.S. now face tariffs as high as 245% (only for some goods). The current increase in numbers no longer holds substantial economic significance but carries more pressure. Today, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs explicitly responded, "China does not want a fight, but it is never afraid of one."

🐬 Stocks

1、$NVIDIA(NVDA.US)

NVIDIA stated that it has received a notice from the U.S. government that the export of H20 chips and chips with H20 memory bandwidth and interconnect bandwidth to China and other regions requires a license. The company is preparing to recognize potential losses of up to $5.5 billion in inventory and purchase agreements. This has a significant impact on NVIDIA, and its after-hours stock price plunged over 6% due to the news. Dolphin Research issued a commentary at noon titled H20 Has Become Another Battleground Between the Two Sides.

2、$ASML(ASML.US)

ASML released its Q1 earnings report, with revenue of 7.742 billion euros and net profit of 2.355 billion euros. New orders in Q1 declined sharply, and the company still faces significant uncertainty due to tariff impacts. Its U.S. stock price fell over 5% in the night session. Dolphin Research will provide a detailed analysis tonight—stay tuned.

🐬 Top Gainers

Shanghai/Shenzhen: Rail freight and passenger transport, water and soft drinks, integrated oil and gas companies;

Hong Kong: Data processing and outsourcing services, packaging, oil and gas refining and sales;

U.S.: Tires and rubber, film and entertainment, precious metals and minerals.

🐬 Key Focus for Next Monday

1、TSMC will release its earnings report, and Dolphin Research will track and provide analysis.

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