Nobody Knows (Yet Again)

The memorandum "Nobody Knows (Yet Again)" (source 1 ...) expresses Howard Marks' main views on investment and market uncertainty. Here are its core contents:

• The future is unknowable and cannot be accurately analyzed 1 ... Marks believes that "analyzing the future" is itself a contradictory statement because the future has not yet occurred and is influenced by countless complex, unquantifiable, and unpredictable factors 2. Especially during turbulent times like the 2008 global financial crisis, the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, and the current (2025) large-scale tariffs, no one can truly know what the future holds 1 ...

• Investment decisions must be made in the absence of certainty and confidence 3. Particularly at market turning points and during severe turmoil, certainty is completely absent in the investment field 3. If one insists on certainty or confidence as a premise for action, it will lead to missed opportunities 3.

• Inaction itself is also a form of action that needs to be critically examined 3. Common sayings among investors like "don't try to catch a falling knife" and "wait for the dust to settle" cannot be the sole justification for inaction 3.

• During crises, no one is truly an expert 3. Even economists, whose analytical tools and theories cannot provide definitive conclusions in unprecedented events like large-scale trade wars, because there has never been a trade war of such scale in modern history, and the theories remain untested 3.

• When the market declines, people often sell out of panic, but this is merely a discount sale of goods 4. Although no one knows whether prices will fall further or if the current prices are reasonable, a market decline does not necessarily mean increased risk, but may represent a buying opportunity 4. This view echoes the analysis in source 5 regarding the high probability of a rebound after significant declines in the stock market.

• Every crisis and market turmoil has its uniqueness 3 ... For example, the market decline caused by tariffs in 2025 is different from previous declines caused by policy or inflation, as it is the result of deliberate human actions 5.

• Predicting the future is not enough; it is more important to have a clear understanding of the correct probabilities of predictions 3. In the current situation filled with unknowns, the accuracy of predictions will be lower than usual 3.

• When facing uncertainty, the most logical approach is rational analysis and moving in the most likely direction, even without complete assurance 3. After the outbreak of the 2008 financial crisis, despite knowing nothing about the future, Marks concluded that funds should be invested in significantly discounted financial assets 1 • The characteristic of the Trump administration is "uncertainty" 3. President Trump's way of thinking and policies, especially regarding trade and tariffs, are often unpredictable, and the market did not anticipate the extent of the tariff increases 3.

• Even understanding the actions of one country (such as the United States), the reactions of other countries and the ultimate impact remain unknown 6.

In summary, Howard Marks emphasizes investment philosophies such as embracing uncertainty, making rational decisions in the face of incomplete information, and recognizing the limitations of historical experience in his book "Nobody Knows (Yet Again)," especially when facing a volatile environment like the Trump administration and the China-U.S. trade relations