NVIDIA (NVDA) Technical Analysis and Trading Recommendations

Comprehensive Technical Analysis

Trends and Patterns

Main/Secondary Trend: Both are in a downtrend (strength 70%), compounded by bearish patterns such as Head and Shoulders (59.1% strength) and Double Tops (69.5% strength), indicating significant short-term pressure.

Support/Resistance: The current price is close to the lower Bollinger Band (109.15), with 113.01-133.83 as the key support range, and strong resistance at 143.44-153.13 above.

Indicator Signals

Moving Average System: Short-term moving averages (5/10/20 days) are all below long-term moving averages (60/120 days), clearly indicating a bearish arrangement.

MACD: After the death cross, DIF and DEA continue to decline, with the MACD histogram's negative value expanding, indicating that bearish momentum has not exhausted.

RSI and KDJ: RSI6 (36.54) is in a neutral to weak area, and the KDJ death cross shows limited demand for short-term oversold recovery.

Recent News Highlights

Bearish Factors

Demand Concerns: The market doubts the sustainability of AI computing power demand, compounded by supply chain bottlenecks and regulatory risks (such as the French antitrust investigation), with the stock price down 16% year-to-date.

Earnings Concerns: The stock price fell after the Q4 earnings report, with free cash flow below expectations and tariff policies potentially increasing cost pressures.

Bullish Factors

GTC Conference Expectations: The GB300 AI chip (water cooling technology upgrade) will be released from March 17-21, which may catalyze a rebound in stock price.

Valuation Recovery: The forward P/E ratio has dropped to 25 times (close to a ten-year low), with institutions like Bernstein considering the current valuation attractive.

Trading Recommendations

Short-term Strategy (1-4 weeks)

Primarily Wait-and-See: The bearish trend in technicals has not reversed, and there are no signs of stabilization in MACD and the moving average system; it is recommended to wait for clearer direction after the GTC conference.

Aggressive Investors: If the stock price touches the support level of 113.01, a light long position can be attempted, with a stop-loss set below $110, targeting 129.51 (first resistance level).

Medium to Long-term Strategy (3-6 months)

Buy on Dips: Focus on the progress of new products at the GTC conference and the validation of Blackwell chip demand; if the resistance level of 143.44 is broken, increase positions, targeting the Wall Street consensus price of $177.41 (potential increase of 58.6%).

Risk Warning: Be cautious of the risk of regulatory policy upgrades (such as export restrictions) and technological breakthroughs by competitors (such as DeepSeek algorithm optimization) that may bring downside risks.

Key Event Tracking:

🔍 March 17 GTC Conference new product release effects

🌐 Regulatory dynamics and tariff policy impacts in the US, China, and Europe

$NVIDIA(NVDA.US)