$Tesla(TSLA.US) What can FSD achieve? From the perspective of the consumer side,

Under version V12, FSD (mainly commercialized in North America) has a very awkward commercialization on the user side:

a. There are approximately 1.8 million Tesla vehicles in North America;

b. The number of active FSD users is 850,000, of which only 550,000 are paying users.

c. When V12 was first pushed, the conversion rate for paid FSD reached 20%, but afterwards it was only around 10%. In June, the one-time purchase price for FSD was lowered to 8,000 yuan, and after promotions such as continuous subscription discounts on vehicle purchases and cheaper car insurance, the conversion rate only increased to less than 15%.

Under version V13, Tesla's internal goal is to raise the FSD conversion rate to 30% and increase the number of paying users to 800,000 to 1 million.

Looking at the short-term commercialization goals, even if there are 1 million paying FSD users by 2025, under the most ideal monetization path assumption (SaaS model, all users adopt the 99-month subscription model, and subscribe every month), the guaranteed FSD SaaS revenue in 2025 would be 1.2 billion USD.

Currently, the implied FSD valuation in the stock price is still somewhat high.