$Tesla(TSLA.US) How far can FSD go? From the consumer perspective,

Under version V12, the commercialization of FSD (mainly in North America) is quite awkward for end-users:

a. There are approximately 1.8 million Tesla vehicles in North America;

b. The number of active FSD users is 850,000, with only 550,000 being paying users.

c. When V12 was first rolled out, the FSD conversion rate reached 20%, but later stabilized around 10%. In June, the one-time purchase price of FSD was reduced to 8,000 yuan. After promotions like continuous subscription discounts and cheaper car insurance, the conversion rate only increased to less than 15%.

Under version V13, Tesla's internal goal is to increase the FSD conversion rate to 30% and achieve 800,000 to 1 million paying users.

Looking at short-term commercialization goals, even if Tesla reaches 1 million FSD paying users by 2025, under the most ideal monetization scenario (SaaS model, all users subscribing at $99 per month and maintaining subscriptions every month), the guaranteed FSD SaaS revenue for 2025 would be $1.2 billion.

The FSD valuation implied in the current stock price is still a bit inflated.