Dolphin Research
2025.01.07 07:01

$Tesla(TSLA.US) How far can FSD go? From the consumer perspective,

Under version V12, the commercialization of FSD (mainly in North America) is quite awkward for end-users:

a. There are approximately 1.8 million Tesla vehicles in North America;

b. The number of active FSD users is 850,000, with only 550,000 being paying users.

c. When V12 was first rolled out, the FSD conversion rate reached 20%, but later stabilized around 10%. In June, the one-time purchase price of FSD was reduced to 8,000 yuan. After promotions like continuous subscription discounts and cheaper car insurance, the conversion rate only increased to less than 15%.

Under version V13, Tesla's internal goal is to increase the FSD conversion rate to 30% and achieve 800,000 to 1 million paying users.

Looking at short-term commercialization goals, even if Tesla reaches 1 million FSD paying users by 2025, under the most ideal monetization scenario (SaaS model, all users subscribing at $99 per month and maintaining subscriptions every month), the guaranteed FSD SaaS revenue for 2025 would be $1.2 billion.

The FSD valuation implied in the current stock price is still a bit inflated.

The copyright of this article belongs to the original author/organization.

The views expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not reflect the stance of the platform. The content is intended for investment reference purposes only and shall not be considered as investment advice. Please contact us if you have any questions or suggestions regarding the content services provided by the platform.