Dolphin Research
2024.12.19 09:12

The Federal Reserve's "hawkish" interest rate cut has arrived again.

The rate has been cut by 25 basis points, bringing the policy rate to 4.25-4.5%.

However, in the new economic forecast, the overall economic expectations for next year have been raised.

The policy rate expectation has been directly lowered by 50 basis points, implying that there will only be two rate cuts next year (most likely by the end of the first quarter).

Originally, the market thought that after the end of the first quarter, the rate cut decision would enter a hard mode, but at least there might still be one more cut.

This guidance is equivalent to being 25 basis points lower than market expectations.

The rise in U.S. stocks brought about by Trump's election has gone from traditional industries to small-cap stocks, then back to a rebound in Nasdaq, followed by a frenzy of new large models and ASICs.

With this round of rebound over, it is estimated that U.S. stocks will enter a consolidation phase, waiting for the new season's earnings.

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