
$Vipshops(VIPS.US) 3Q24 Quick Interpretation: At first glance, Vipshop's performance this quarter is below expectations, which the market had already fully anticipated. Under the current price and fundamentals, investment funds are more focused on shareholder returns.
1) Core operating indicators, including user numbers, order volume, and GMV, all experienced mid-to-high single-digit negative growth. Facing a severe competitive environment, Vipshop, as the "little brother" in the industry, is under pressure from user attrition.
2) Due to the decline in operating indicators, revenue decreased by approximately 9% year-on-year, nearing the lower limit of the previously anticipated -5% to -10% revenue decline range. This is clearly a weak performance, but the market had already priced it in. The guidance for companies with declining revenue is also -5% to -10%, but the midpoint of the guidance is completely in line with expectations, indicating that the market has fully anticipated continued pressure on Vipshop's revenue in 4Q.
3) The only comforting point is that Vipshop's gross margin this quarter did not decline year-on-year as the market generally expected due to falling average order value or subsidies; instead, it actually increased slightly by 0.4 percentage points. Therefore, the actual gross profit exceeded expectations by more than 200 million, which also translated to an operating profit exceeding expectations by 160 million. However, compared to the previous year, operating profit still declined by 13%.
4) This quarter, Vipshop repurchased a total of $275 million, slightly up from the repurchase amount in the previous quarter. If it maintains a repurchase amount of over $200 million in 4Q, then the total repurchase for the year would yield at least a 9% return based on the current company market value. This also represents the first tier of direct shareholder return levels among Chinese concept assets.
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