Dolphin Research
2024.11.07 23:34

$Airbnb(ABNB.US)3Q24 first take: From the perspective of expectation differences, Airbnb's performance in this quarter's financial report was slightly better than market expectations, with most financial indicators generally exceeding expectations, but the extent was limited (basically not exceeding 2%).

However, beyond the limited extent of expectation differences, looking at the trend of performance itself: 1) From a growth perspective, due to the growth rate of nights booked and the increase in average revenue per booking continuing to slow down slightly compared to the previous quarter, the core indicator of total gross booking value (GBV) saw a sequential decline of 1 percentage point to 10%, now on the edge of single digits.

2) By region, revenue growth in North America significantly dropped to 6.4%, a sequential decline of 3.3 percentage points, indicating that demand has become very weak and has clearly deteriorated. Growth in Europe, Asia-Pacific, and Latin America was around 12% to 13%, slightly accelerating compared to the previous quarter overall. However, all major regions are hovering around single-digit growth rates, indicating that there are no regions with strong growth for Airbnb globally.

3) From the perspective of expenses and profits, as the company announced an increase in investment efforts in advance, the overall operating expenses as a percentage of revenue increased by 4.3 percentage points this quarter. Under the pressure of higher investment, operating profit only grew by 2% year-on-year this quarter. Although this is an improvement compared to the previous quarter's negative growth of 5%, it still reflects a difficult situation of narrowing profit margins and stagnation in profit growth.

4) For guidance on the next quarter, the company expects the growth rate of nights booked to improve slightly compared to this quarter (the market expects the same), but it is likely still below 10%. The guidance revenue range is $2.39 to $2.44 billion, with the upper limit slightly higher than the market expectation of $2.42 billion, overall indicating a neutral outlook.

Therefore, it cannot be denied that Airbnb's actual performance this quarter was slightly better than market expectations, but the two core concerns of continuous decline in growth and narrowing profit margins have not fundamentally reversed in this quarter.

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