With the return of the Sichuan University, the domestic policy choices have basically eliminated the retreat, leaving only the perilous path of Huashan—re-inflation, which includes both asset re-inflation and price re-inflation.

In terms of domestic economic growth, there are really only two engines: one is leveraging, and the other is strong external demand; these two are the fundamental sources of demand creation.

Next year, external demand itself is expected to weaken marginally. If Trump raises tariffs again, the domestic economy can only focus on internal cultivation. Moreover, the stimulation of demand must center on terminal demand, not on stimulating investment demand in intermediate links.

For the past two years, Chinese assets have been stuck in a state of low valuation and high dividends. In 2025, there is a high probability of opportunities in cyclical recovery and technological upgrades (referencing the 2018 trade war).

The path is singular and clear, making the game relatively simple. Next year, it is highly probable that the focus will be on cyclical recovery, especially with this trading path, where the first half will focus on policy expectations and the second half will focus on the effectiveness of implementation.

The policy game has already begun today. In terms of rhythm, the first to move in cyclical recovery must be consumer goods, especially service consumption, because the domestic economic space for internal demand is still larger in service consumption.

Moreover, the results of the meeting on the 8th will be announced soon, and there will also be a central economic work conference at the end of the year, so consumer goods will rise first. The valuation of the consumer sector is at a low level, so Dolphin believes that this is currently a window period for positioning in cyclical sectors, and it is recommended to pay attention to consumer sectors with good fundamentals and low valuations. $YUM China(YUMC.US) $NONGFU SPRING(09633.HK) $TSINGTAO BREW(00168.HK) $HAIDILAO(06862.HK) $CHINA RES BEER(00291.HK) $ANTA SPORTS(02020.HK)

Note that these overseas assets are all pure Hong Kong stocks.

Internet consumer stocks, due to most being listed in the US, have a higher weight of US capital, and the market is concerned that they may become a part of the China-US play, so they need to digest the negatives first. However, after digesting the negatives, opportunities can also be explored.