Dolphin Research
2024.11.06 07:43

Return of Sichuan University. Speaking of domestic policies, there are two core points:

a. Economic stimulus may weaken (but since many anti-inflation measures' industrial stimulus are mainly given to Republican states, how much can be reduced is also questionable), and then there are tax cuts, with the core being the 2025 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, which is expected to be permanent. This is very unfavorable for the expectations of the U.S. fiscal deficit. With a high deficit, bonds need to be issued, and with an increase in bond supply, bond yields can easily rise, which is why the 10-year Treasury bond has been pulling up.

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b. Immigration policy: In addition to the border wall from the first term, this time it has been enhanced - there will be deportations of illegal immigrants within the country. Currently, U.S. employment is in a state of micro-balance, and after tightening immigration, whether there will be a rebound in inflation is worth paying attention to.

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