$Li Auto(LI.US) After the third quarter financial report was released, despite relatively good performance in the third quarter, why did the stock price reflect a decline of nearly 14%/10% in the US and Hong Kong stock markets?

Dolphin Jun mentioned some reasons in yesterday's commentary on Li Auto's financial report in the article《Li Auto: Mixed Results, Can New Electric Products Support Li Auto Again?》, and Dolphin Jun obtained new information during today's Li Auto earnings call:

① The gross margin of the automotive business in the third quarter was 20.9%, exceeding the market expectation of 20.2%. However, in fact, the gross margin of the automotive business this quarter included a rebate from the largest battery supplier (possibly CATL), contributing approximately 1.4% to the automotive business gross margin. After removing this, the automotive business gross margin is 19.5%, which is not considered an exceeding expectation status.

As the lithium carbonate price has basically stabilized, this rebate factor is expected to be absent in the fourth quarter. Therefore, Li Auto's guidance for the fourth quarter automotive gross margin is above 20%, which is still a relatively mediocre state.

The factors for the Q4 gross margin guidance to continue improving compared to the Q3 actual 19.5% include a. Continued sales growth leading to scale effects; b. There may still be some supply chain rebates at the end of the year.

② The implied unit price in this quarter's revenue guidance has already dropped below 260,000, and the two possible reasons previously mentioned by Dolphin Jun are a. The proportion of L6 continues to increase, b. There is still a possibility of further price reductions;

According to the information Dolphin Jun currently understands, L6's current production capacity is only about 25,000-26,000. If we estimate based on L6's monthly sales of 26,000 in November/December, and the central estimate for fourth quarter sales guidance is 165,000, the proportion of L6 in fourth quarter sales is about 47%. The proportion of L6 in the third quarter has already been at 49%, so the proportion of L6 is unlikely to continue increasing in the fourth quarter.

The reason for the decline in unit price: Further price reductions are likely to be a high-probability event, reflecting increased competition (especially with the potential launch of Aito M8 at the end of the year), and combined with the general sales expectations for the fourth quarter, it may still imply that Li Auto currently does not have many orders on hand.

Additionally, Dolphin Jun has obtained other information:

① No L5 model

② With the improvement of intelligent driving capabilities, the proportion of Max selections is also increasing: the selection ratio of Max for models priced above 300,000 is rising relatively quickly, while L6, due to different customer groups, is rising more slowly. Currently, the Max proportion for models above 300,000 is at 70%, and L6 has improved by 10%, slowly approaching 30%;