morning_wind
2024.10.31 00:35

$LI AUTO-W(02015.HK) is going to release its financial report today. From the performance of US stocks last night, the market is clearly looking forward to this financial report. Here’s my take on it:

1. Sales and pure electric vehicles are clear indicators. They certainly won't disclose too many details about next year's new products in the financial report just to please the market. However, the financial report is ahead of schedule, which indicates some preparation.

2. Last time before the financial report, there were concerns about gross margin, but it stabilized. This time there is no mega impact, so gross margin should not be an issue, and may even see some recovery.

3. In this quarter, there has been a lot of positive feedback in the market. Let's see if the financial report will disclose or forecast some positive information. This is also what I personally look forward to the most.

4. Although they definitely won't disclose new product details, will they at least give a rough idea about next year's product rhythm to help the market recalibrate next year's sales and growth targets, and strive to open up upward space? However, this is uncertain and could be pushed to the next quarter, or it might be normal to hold a separate press conference for promotion.

5. More disclosure of supercharging information, including plans for next year and financial impacts. Positively speaking, it should be accelerated in advance, and the market has already seen actions in this regard. Cautiously speaking, will the financial impact be significant? Will there be any disclosures in the financial report? I understand that it mainly depends on the cooperation model at the end points, whether it will be heavy assets or light operational assets in the future.

6. Going overseas. The US is impossible, and the product matching in Europe is currently poor and facing tariffs, so that is also not feasible. The focus is still on the Middle East and Central Asia, which was originally planned for early this year but was halted due to the mega impact. Recently, they have been working on it again, establishing a new first-level department, attempting to shift from parallel exports to self-operated. Let's see if more will be disclosed in the financial report. This is my second point of expectation for this financial report.

All of the above are positive expectations, now let's discuss the cautious side.

7. Production capacity has not been cleared, and the entire industry is still in high-intensity competition. I do not hide my admiration and recognition for the management of Li Auto. However, it must be noted: in such a relatively poor landscape, even quality management and companies may ultimately only achieve ordinary returns, and the risks may not be small, so position management should be cautious.

Finally, related interests: I am a Li Auto L9 owner and currently hold more than 10% of the shares. There are no plans to reduce holdings as long as the stock price remains below 150.

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