Dolphin Research
2024.10.29 04:03

The financial report season in the US and A-shares is intertwined, and this week can be considered a frenzy of both macro and micro financial reports.

Last night, a report came out from $Focus Media(002027.SZ), and looking at the revenue, it is clear that the sales expenses for consumer goods in the third quarter should be relatively restrained, with low single-digit growth possibly being considered good in the advertising industry this quarter.

However, as the market stands now, the focus is not on how bad the third quarter was; even from the perspective of the fourth quarter outlook for Chinese concept assets, they cannot provide a particularly clear forecast, at most mentioning the current situation of Double Eleven.

Therefore, the key point of contention ultimately returns to the speed of fiscal policy implementation in the fourth quarter and how much macro deficit rate the central economic work at the end of the year will provide to support the economy, as next year, exports are likely to be in a range of only worse and worse (if Trump comes to power).

In this environment, any company that can deliver truly unexpected performance (mainly needing to have a substantial beat on the revenue side) is a company with top-notch execution.

Among the five giants in the US stock market, the fluctuations during the earnings season are not expected to be significant, as most companies have relatively stable fundamentals, and the main turning point will depend on the election results.

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