Tomorrow morning, $Tesla(TSLA.US) will release its earnings report. Recently, the market first felt that Tesla's sales were increasing, and then there was the Robotaxi launch event, which drove the stock price up. However, after the event, people began to realize that the conference was basically a party for various Tesla stakeholders (public funds, private equity, sell-side, users), but lacked substantial content.

The third-quarter sales of 463,000 units were indeed quite good, and they were basically in line with the market expectations after the price increase. As a result, after buying the expectation, funds have been selling the fact during this period.

For the remaining time this year, the market has basically set a fourth-quarter expectation of 500,000 units, which should not be too difficult to achieve during the peak sales season.

The expectation for 2025 is set at 2.04 million units, which means maintaining the current sales of Model 3 and Y, while slightly cheaper new models (possibly between Model 3 and the truly affordable Model 2, tentatively referred to as Model 2.5) will bring about 250,000 units of pure new sales.

In Dolphin Jun's view, this expectation is basically reasonable. If there are deliveries of Model 2.5 in 2025 and the release of Model 2 (which may be in the second half of the year), then Tesla's real opportunity may still have to wait until the second half of 2025.

However, at least the overall environment in 2025 will be better than in 2024: a. interest rates have been cut, reducing the pressure of interest payments on car purchases; b. there is indeed some hope for new car deliveries. Compared to Tesla's neutral bottom position of around 150 in 2024, there is hope to raise it to 180-200 in 2025, while also paying attention to the potential valuation opportunities for FSD in the case of Trump's election.

The key to short-term speculation is still the gross margin. Under strong competition, if the gross margin for car sales remains under pressure (the market expectation for the third quarter is that the gross margin for the automotive business can increase slightly from 14.6% to around 15.5%), then Dolphin Jun believes that if a safety cushion is provided, it is best to look for opportunities below 180 in the short term.

Anyway, let's wait for the results tomorrow! I wonder what the community's big shots think, is anyone placing bets?