1A,2A,3A

I’m expecting today’s CPI to come in relatively soft across the board. Gasoline prices barely changed last month, so energy shouldn’t add much inflationary pressure. More importantly, if AI-driven K-shaped divergence looks broadly similar in the U.S. and China, weaker demand across the lower end could reinforce disinflationary pressure. If the data confirms that trend, the Fed may have more room to turn dovish, especially if the labor market also starts cooling. The key is whether this becomes a sustained disinflation trend rather than just one soft CPI print.