$SPY — THE ROADMAP INTO JACKSON HOLEWe now have tw

$SPY — THE ROADMAP INTO JACKSON HOLE

We now have two major Follow-Through Days in 2026:

April 8 → Follow-Through Day

The MACD thrust coming off the oversold lows was extremely powerful and helped launch the spring advance.

August 4 → Follow-Through Day

The MACD thrust is positive again.

Not quite the same explosion we saw in April, but momentum is clearly improving and the market has confirmed another rally attempt.

My roadmap from here:

FIB Bar 13 → August OPEX

FIB Bar 21 → Jackson Hole, August 27

Bars 21–34 → Jackson Hole through the September 16 FOMC

That 8/27 → 9/16 window is where I think the risk of the late-summer swoon increases.

Why?

We move through Labor Day, kids go back to school, summer liquidity/volume changes, and then Jackson Hole gives the Fed another opportunity to talk hawkish and scare the market.

That creates a natural window for profit-taking after an August run.

MY BASE CASE

NOW → AUGUST 27: BULLISH BIAS

Earnings remain supportive. If CPI, PPI and labor data stay tame, the market has room to continue running into Jackson Hole.

Then I want to become more defensive.

AUGUST 27 → SEPTEMBER 16: CAUTION / SUMMER SWOON WINDOW

This is where I would expect momentum to weaken, particularly if the market becomes extended going into Jackson Hole.

Then comes the next major decision point:

SEPTEMBER 16 FOMC

Absent a major inflation shock or geopolitical change, I do not currently see a compelling reason for the Fed to hike rates.

Iran/energy remains an important wildcard because another oil shock could quickly change the inflation conversation.

THE TRADE

For now, I am treating the August 4 Follow-Through Day as valid until price proves otherwise.

Ride the August momentum → respect August OPEX → look to trim risk into Jackson Hole → prepare for potential weakness into the September FOMC.

The market doesn't have to repeat April.

It just needs to keep confirming the trend.

$SPY TREND:

HIGHER UNTIL PROVEN OTHERWISE.