Fubon Securities: Nvidia
Chip Output Forecast & Adjustments> Rubin Ultra Adjustments: Following NVIDIA's cancellation or push-out of its Kyber rack and four-compute die Rubin Ultra GPU, the interposer size is now expected to see only a minor increase compared to Rubin.> Interposer Estimates: The model estimates 12 interposers per CoWoS wafer for Rubin and 10 for Rubin Ultra.> Total Chip Output: NVIDIA's total chip output is projected to increase to 12.4 million in 2027, up from 8.2 million in 2026.> Short-Term Volume Revisions: Rubin's volume forecast for the short-term has been revised down to around 1 million due to earlier thermal design changes and production push-outs.> Overall 2026 Output: Higher Blackwell volume in 3Q26 keeps the 2026 CoWoS chip output forecast largely unchanged.> Supply Chain Impact: Production delays in Rubin negatively impact suppliers with higher dollar content; for example, KYEC revised its 2026 full-year guidance down to the high 30s from 40%.BOM Cost & Pricing Estimates> HBM4 Cost Increases: NVIDIA's HBM 4 cost is projected to rise to $31–32 per GB (up from $17–18 per GB for HBM 3e in 2026).> GPU Pricing: NVIDIA's Rubin GPU price is expected to skyrocket to $78–80K, assuming NVIDIA maintains a gross margin (GM) of 75–80% on chips.> ASIC & Other Projects: HBM costs for other GPUs and custom-ASIC projects are expected to reach $35–36 per GB, effectively doubling HBM costs by 2027.$NVIDIA(NVDA.US) $Meta Platforms(META.US) $Microsoft(MSFT.US) $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) $Amazon(AMZN.US)The copyright of this article belongs to the original author/organization.
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