amit
2026.08.07 18:06

so…the S&P is basically at ATHs

Trump has said 7 different times this week that he wants a deal with Iran

Bessent said a ceasefire could be announced over the weekend

Rate hike probabilities tanked by 20% today because of the labor market data

$Palantir Tech(PLTR.US) is up 40% in a week…which means the software stocks are finally getting the respect they deserve including $Microsoft(MSFT.US) $Reddit(RDDT.US) $Shopify (SHOP.US)

earnings continue to compound aggressively

the super high-beta semi names are consolidating like $Micron Tech(MU.US) $Nebius(NBIS.US) which isn’t bearish at all, especially when their growth continues to be massive

hyperscalers continue to spend on capex and cloud growth rates are showing the ROI

leverage also has been wiped out significantly

feels like we could be setting up for an end of year run IF hikes are out of the picture and earnings continue strong

the main bear case felt like oil/leverage/war/hikes

my only fear is OpenAI and Anthropic’s numbers not being meaningful enough to carry out their spending commitments but those will be shown over time

if those broader bear cases are not as relevant as inflation comes down…maybe we can continue with the momentum

Source: amit

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